basicmike

Shooting at the walls of heartache Bang, bang I am the warrior Well I am the warrior And heart to heart you'll win If you survive the warrior, the warrior

He shouldn't need drugs for that

Fuck you Mike Timlin

The point is that Ortiz has won more games the Sox than Rodriguez has for the yanks, thus he is more valuable, not what if he had to play defense. I just thought it was interesting, not 100% correct.

From sonsofsamhorn Like many here, I've always had a general sense that, while Alex Rodriguez is always able to put up huge numbers for the Yankees, it seems like most of his actual prodcution happens in the 19-8 blowouts (3-5, 5 R, 3 RBI) and not in the tough close extra inning games (1-9, 1 R, 2 RBI). Ortiz obviously has the exact opposite feeling. The question isn't just "which one is more clutch?" or "who would you want up with the game on the line?" although those are both relevant questions and I can't imagine any Yankee fan would honestly say Rodriguez to either. The question is, "how many games did Rodriguez actually help the Yankees win this year?" and the same for Ortiz. For that, it seems to me, is the real meaning of the word valuable. So I went through all pulled out all the games in which the player was the difference maker for his team. That is to say, all the games in which the player's team won, but if you took away the runs produced by the player, the game would be a tie or a defeat [any game in which the players team won and R+RBI-HR>= Run differential]. I then looked closer at those games, to see how many times the player produced a key run (a tying or winning run) and how many times the player produced a key run late in the game. For Rodriguez, the answer is 23. That is, there have been 23 games that the Yankees have won this year by a number less than or equal to the number of runs produced by ARod. Of those, removing ARod's production would result in a loss in 7 games, and a tie in the remaining 16. Ortiz, meanwhile, has been the difference maker in 27 Red Sox victories. Of those, 12 would have been losses without Ortiz' run production, and 15 would have been ties. Thus, assuming a .580 winning percentage for both teams in all the 'tie' games (generous given the shape of the Sox bullpen), the standings without the offense of Rodriguez and Ortiz looks something like this: Yankees 72-77 Red Sox 69-81 3.5 GB (of course, this is replacing the two superstars not with a league average player, but rather with a player who never drives in or scores any runs at all, so the dramatic difference in records is unsurprising) So on one level, the answer to the question 'how much is Ortiz' offense worth relative to Rodriguez' is approximately four games; the difference between a half game lead and a three and half game deficit. Another look through the numbers makes it look even greater, however. In the games where Rodriguez' production has been a difference maker for the Yankees, ARod has produced the tying or winning run in 13 of those games, and has produced the tying or winning run late in 6 games. Here, the difference with Ortiz is massive. Ortiz has produced a tying or winning run in 22 of the 27 games in which he has been a difference maker. In more than half of those games, the tying or winning run was produced late in the game (13 times, which doesn't count the fact that on August 16, he hit both the home run to tie the game and the hr to win the game, both late). I would never use something like this as a measure of calculating an individual player's ability, since it so obviously is dependant on a wide variety of team factors, and I'm sure that over the course of a million iterations the difference would even out. But the MVP award is about performance, not ability. Be it random chance, a mythical clutch hitting ability, or some other factor, it seems obvious to me that Ortiz' offense has won significantly more games for the Sox than Rodriguez has. It seems difficult to imagine that Rodriguez' defense has been a difference maker in four Yankee wins (and his advantage in basestealing is either already counted in his runs scored, or not worth counting). As a result, and with this extremely narrow focus, I would have to say that Ortiz has been the more valuable player.

Kid is on Fiya... back 2 back!

Pitchers have won the MVP in the American League and they are "one dimensional". But I agree that Ortiz would have to be far and away the better hitter to be a favorite for the award.

Good point. I think Ortiz has better numbers with RISP and in more pressure situations. Plus he is a million times more likable.

naw just really biased... Whose your MVP?

Done, Over, Fini. Too tired, too hurt, too many people slumping. Starting pitching has gone from great to shit in a week. Bullpen is shit. Save Hansen and Papelbon's arms for next year. Can't complain because of last year though. It's time to focus on Sunday at Pittsburgh. Still think Ortiz is MVP.

http://www.big-boys.com/articles/cheneyfbomb.html He's gettin owned by some hecklers.

Omar Vizquel

Mark Lemke

You can def. count me in for 5000 if you are hot...

http://www.sportsline.com/nfl/story/8661451 Probably the right call, but fuck this hurts us. I guess 90% isn't good enough. http://www.boston.com/sports/football/patriots/articles/2005/07/20/report_bruschi_to_play_in_05/