looks like conkridamus might be right...

[dgmodel]

WASHINGTON (Dec. 18) - President Bush's national security advisers are recommending that he declare Iraq in violation of a United Nations disarmament order, administration officials say, but they do not consider the indictment an immediate trigger for war.

Instead, advisers expect Bush to chart a slightly more patient course that would push the prospects for military action into the new year.

The president was to hear from his advisers as early as Wednesday on options available to the United States in response to Iraqi President Saddam Hussein's contention that he has no weapons of mass destruction.

At issue is a 12,000-page weapons declaration required under the U.S.-backed U.N. disarmament resolution. Administration officials have privately said for days that Bush considers the declaration laughably inadequate.

There has been some discussion inside the administration about immediately declaring Iraq in ''material breach'' of the resolution, which could provide Bush with what he considers legal justification for going to war.

However, the prospect was not seriously discussed Tuesday in a meeting of Bush's national security team, according to two senior administration officials who spoke on condition of anonymity Tuesday night.

Instead, advisers are ready to recommend that Bush allow the weapons inspectors to go ahead with their work while using the declaration's omissions to increase public pressure on both the United Nations and Iraq, the officials said.

Bush is expected to publicly make his case against the declaration on Friday, assuming he signs off on the recommendations, officials said. But the Friday time frame could change, they cautioned.

The strategy gaining most support on Bush's team is to increase pressure on U.N. weapons inspectors to seek interviews with Iraqi weapons scientists outside of Iraq, a prerogative given to the international body under the resolution.

Bush believes Saddam will resist such demands, giving the United States a case for ''material breach'' that U.S. allies and the American public may find more justified than hastier action, the officials said.

On the other hand, if Iraq surprises Bush and turns over the scientists, U.S. officials believe the witnesses would provide evidence that could be used against Saddam, officials said.

The strategy under consideration would, as a matter of course, mean military force could not be contemplated for several weeks.

The White House has said repeatedly it has evidence of Saddam's weapons of mass destruction programs, but it has yet to make any public.

The officials said Bush's team has several significant problems with the Iraqi document, including its failure to explain what happened to Saddam's chemical and biological weapons program after 1998.

The administration also takes issue with Saddam's denial of any nuclear weapons programs inside Iraq, the officials said.

Bush has said repeatedly he is willing to use force against Saddam, if necessary, and without the United Nations, if necessary. Many U.S. allies, and critics of Bush in the United States, say they fear he is looking for any excuse to wage war.

AP-NY-12-18-02 0233EST

Copyright 2002 The Associated Press. The information contained in the AP news report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or otherwise distributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.

[guyman1966]

Bush will send in the troops in March.

[mrmatas2277]

Originally posted by guyman1966

Bush will send in the troops in March.

"Beware the Ides of March":D