Impact of Iraq War Just Starting to Spread Through Arab

[mr mahs]

For all the peole who thought this conflict would not have positive effect on how middle eastern countrie address their internal promblems please read....

CAIRO, Egypt — While President Bush has declared major fighting over in Iraq, the repercussions of the war for the rest of the Mideast (search) are just starting to be felt, and it's an open question about whether for better or worse.

Radical regimes in Syria (search) and Iran (search) are suddenly toning down the anti-U.S. rhetoric and urging dialogue. Authoritarian leaders in Egypt (search) and Jordan (search) are talking -- with varying degrees of enthusiasm -- about democratization, while militants in the streets of Cairo and Amman predict a wave of new recruits to fight the American occupiers and their supporters.

"Announcing the end of the military operations doesn't mean the end of the war," said Tareq Masarweh, a prominent Jordanian columnist who foresees "popular resistance" as long as the U.S. military remains in Iraq.

How the replacement of Saddam Hussein (search) with a presumably pro-U.S. government in Baghdad will affect regional politics is one of the biggest uncertainties.

Awed by Washington's display of firepower in Iraq, no one looks likely to claim Saddam's mantle as leader of defiance to the West.

Even Syria, which likes to refer to itself as the "heart of Arabism," welcomed U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell this weekend for tough talk about its own weapons program, allegations that Damascus aided Saddam's regime and links to terrorism.

"The U.S. doesn't need to invade any more countries," said Iman Hamdi, an expert on Mideast affairs at the American University in Cairo. "We've got the message."

Lebanon also has felt the heat because of the presence there of the Syrian- and Iranian-backed Hezbollah guerrilla group, which is on the State Department's list of terrorist organizations.

Beirut regards Hezbollah as a legitimate resistance movement against Israel. But Hezbollah's leader, Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, seems worried too.

"In the end, we are facing a new reality," he told supporters after the U.S. victory in Iraq.

Iranian hard-liners are signaling a new willingness to consider the possibility of restoring ties with Washington, cut since the 1979 Islamic revolution and hostage-taking at the U.S. Embassy.

Iran's former president threw his weight last month behind the idea of a referendum on restoring ties -- an idea believed to have broad popular support despite official opposition.

After Washington charged Iran was trying to promote an Iranian-style theocracy in Iraq, Tehran was quick to deny it.

"Tehran does not want any friction with Washington over issues concerning Iraq," said Hasan Rowhani, secretary of Iran's powerful Supreme National Security Council.

Some have suggested Washington's professed determination to establish a democratic government in Iraq could have a domino effect in the region -- depending on how it goes.

"If it fails and Iraq descends into civil strife ... the effect would be devastating," said Fawaz Gerges, professor of Mideast studies at Sarah Lawrence College in New York. "Militant forces would be strengthened. America's vital interests and local allies would be endangered."

Some of those moderate allies have been taking democratic steps, even if small ones.

Bahrain had its first parliamentary elections in three decades last October. Qatari voters approved their first constitution this week and the first parliamentary elections are expected next year.

In Jordan, which has been without a parliament for two years, King Abdullah II promises elections will finally go ahead June 17.

"That'll get us back on the right track as quickly as possible," he said in a CNN interview. "We're not looking over our shoulder. I mean we're looking to the future and moving."

By contrast, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak dismissed the notion that "imposing democracy by force" in Iraq would result in wholesale reforms in the Islamic world or a lessening of fanaticism.

He said Wednesday that Arab countries were trying to bring democracy "according to their own standards."

Mubarak wields ultimate control in Egypt under emergency laws in place since the 1981 assassination of his predecessor, Anwar Sadat, by extremists opposed to the peace deal with Israel.

Saudi Arabia, an absolute monarchy, is also feeling rattled.

Just before the war, the ruling family allowed human rights teams to visit and meet with reformers, a signal that it senses change is the best way to protect its rule.

Mass popular disillusionment with Arab governments after the Iraq war could also undermine the already divided 22-nation Arab League.

Rounds of summitry over the Iraq crisis degenerated into bickering and name-calling. Joint pronouncements against the war were undermined by some members who helped the U.S.-led invasion force, whether overtly or quietly.

The league's "teeth are made of flesh," said Ayed al-Manna, a political analyst in Kuwait, which has sharply criticized the league.

Some analysts say the main impact of the war may be to force Arabs and their leaders to address their problems -- and the rest of the world -- more honestly.

"The only positive thing in the long run is it's going to make people here wake up to all the illusions they have with the West," Hamdi said. "It puts things in perspective and maybe then we can find a way to better serve our own interests."