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Reuters/Zogby Poll: Bush Opens Four-Point Lead on Kerry


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Reuters Poll: Bush Opens Four-Point Lead on Kerry

By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Bush opened a four-point lead on Democratic Sen. John Kerry the day after the final debate between the White House rivals, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Friday.

Bush led Kerry 48-44 percent in the latest three-day tracking poll, which included one night of polling done after Wednesday's debate in Tempe, Arizona. Bush led Kerry, a senator from Massachusetts, by only one point, 46-45 percent, the previous day.

An improvement in Bush's showing among undecideds and a strong response from his base Republican supporters helped fuel the president's rise.

"The good news for the president is that he has improved his performance among the small group of undecideds," said pollster John Zogby, who found 6 percent of likely voters are undecided. "Nearly a quarter now say that he deserves to be re-elected, up from 18 percent in our last poll."

Zogby said the difference between Kerry's 79 percent support among Democrats and Bush's 89 percent support from Republicans also should be "worrisome" for Kerry in such a tight race.

"Kerry needs to close the deal with his fellow Democrats," Zogby said.

Both candidates headed to the swing state of Nevada in upbeat mood on Thursday after their final debate and renewed their battle during separate appearances in Las Vegas over who was best suited to lead the middle class to prosperity.

The focus of the race now turns to less than a dozen crucial battleground states, with Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin and Iowa -- where Bush and Kerry are running neck and neck -- all certain to see plenty of the candidates down the stretch.

The new tracking poll found Bush pulling into a tie with Kerry among Catholics and women voters, and moving slightly ahead with young voters. Kerry still holds a solid lead among seniors.

The poll of 1,220 likely voters was taken Tuesday through Thursday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. The rolling poll will continue through Nov. 1 -- the day before the election.

A tracking poll combines the results of three consecutive nights of polling, then drops the first night's results each time a new night is added. It allows pollsters to record shifts in voter sentiment as they happen.

The poll showed independent candidate Ralph Nader, blamed by some Democrats for drawing enough votes from Al Gore to cost him the election in 2000, with the support of 1.1 percent of likely voters.

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Presidential Tracking Poll: Bush-Kerry

Updated Daily by Noon Eastern Election 2004

Presidential Ballot

Bush 49.0%

Kerry 45.5%

Other 2.1%

Not Sure 3.4%

RasmussenReports.com

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Friday October 15, 2004--The Presidential debates are over and the election is just two-and-a-half weeks away. The latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows President George W. Bush with 49% of the vote and Senator John Kerry with 46%. The Tracking Poll is updated daily by noon Eastern.

Voters surveyed last night declared the third and final debate a tie, with fans of each candidate thinking their man won. The number of voters who prefer Bush over Kerry on both national defense and the economy has returned to the levels that existed before the first debate.

In the South Dakota Senate race, Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle and former Congressman John Thune are tied. This is one of seven Toss-Ups that will determine control of the United States Senate.

Just over one-third of the interviews for today's Tracking Poll were conducted following Wednesday night's Presidential Debate. The post-debate sample of 1,000 Likely Voters found the President ahead by just under 3 percentage points.

Our latest Electoral College projections show the President ahead with 240 Electoral Votes to 194 for Senator Kerry. This will be updated at 5:00 p.m. Eastern today

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I have been sick all week, but this is putting a smile on my face. God Bless America!

The main reason why I posted these polls was because I have found it interesting that after the three debates, Bush is still leading (when you consider polls show Kerry won two or even all three)....and after the walloping he took in the polls after the first debate, he stopped the bleeding, and looks like he may have even got a little momentum after his good perfomance this final debate...

I certainly think Bush choked big time in that first debate, and missed a huge opportunity....but I guess in the end, after the dreadful DNC and successful RNC, the Swift Boat impact, and the three debates, everything has been re-calibrated from where it pretty much has been from the start....a close race.....

So much for the hundreds of millions of dollars spent....

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The main reason why I posted these polls was because I have found it interesting that after the three debates, Bush is still leading (when you consider polls show Kerry won two or even all three)....and after the walloping he took in the polls after the first debate, he stopped the bleeding, and looks like he may have even got a little momentum after his good perfomance this final debate...

I certainly think Bush choked big time in that first debate, and missed a huge opportunity....but I guess in the end, after the dreadful DNC and successful RNC, the Swift Boat impact, and the three debates, everything has been re-calibrated from where it pretty much has been from the start....a close race.....

So much for the hundreds of millions of dollars spent....

I didnt make it through the whole 3rd debate due to previously mentioned sickness. I did however read alot of post debate coverage and basically, after millions spent and countless hours on the campaign trail, President Bush is still in front.

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