Fuck you Igloo. U.S. Troops in Iraq: 72% Say End War in 2006

[destruction]

Released: February 28, 2006 U.S. Troops in Iraq: 72% Say End War in 2006

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• Le Moyne College/Zogby Poll shows just one in five troops want to heed Bush call to stay “as long as they are neededâ€
  
• While 58% say mission is clear, 42% say U.S. role is hazy
  
• Plurality believes Iraqi insurgents are mostly homegrown
  
• Almost 90% think war is retaliation for Saddam’s role in 9/11, most don’t blame Iraqi public for insurgent attacks
  
• Majority of troops oppose use of harsh prisoner interrogation
  
• Plurality of troops pleased with their armor and equipment
  

An overwhelming majority of 72% of American troops serving in Iraq think the U.S. should exit the country within the next year, and more than one in four say the troops should leave immediately, a new Le Moyne College/Zogby International survey shows.

The poll, conducted in conjunction with Le Moyne College’s Center for Peace and Global Studies, showed that 29% of the respondents, serving in various branches of the armed forces, said the U.S. should leave Iraq “immediately,†while another 22% said they should leave in the next six months. Another 21% said troops should be out between six and 12 months, while 23% said they should stay “as long as they are needed.â€

Different branches had quite different sentiments on the question, the poll shows. While 89% of reserves and 82% of those in the National Guard said the U.S. should leave Iraq within a year, 58% of Marines think so. Seven in ten of those in the regular Army thought the U.S. should leave Iraq in the next year. Moreover, about three-quarters of those in National Guard and Reserve units favor withdrawal within six months, just 15% of Marines felt that way. About half of those in the regular Army favored withdrawal from Iraq in the next six months.

The troops have drawn different conclusions about fellow citizens back home. Asked why they think some Americans favor rapid U.S. troop withdrawal from Iraq, 37% of troops serving there said those Americans are unpatriotic, while 20% believe people back home don’t believe a continued occupation will work. Another 16% said they believe those favoring a quick withdrawal do so because they oppose the use of the military in a pre-emptive war, while 15% said they do not believe those Americans understand the need for the U.S. troops in Iraq.

The wide-ranging poll also shows that 58% of those serving in country say the U.S. mission in Iraq is clear in their minds, while 42% said it is either somewhat or very unclear to them, that they have no understanding of it at all, or are unsure. While 85% said the U.S. mission is mainly “to retaliate for Saddam’s role in the 9-11 attacks,†77% said they also believe the main or a major reason for the war was “to stop Saddam from protecting al Qaeda in Iraq.â€

“Ninety-three percent said that removing weapons of mass destruction is not a reason for U.S. troops being there,†said Pollster John Zogby, President and CEO of Zogby International. “Instead, that initial rationale went by the wayside and, in the minds of 68% of the troops, the real mission became to remove Saddam Hussein.†Just 24% said that “establishing a democracy that can be a model for the Arab World" was the main or a major reason for the war. Only small percentages see the mission there as securing oil supplies (11%) or to provide long-term bases for US troops in the region (6%).

The continuing insurgent attacks have not turned U.S. troops against the Iraqi population, the survey shows. More than 80% said they did not hold a negative view of Iraqis because of those attacks. About two in five see the insurgency as being comprised of discontented Sunnis with very few non-Iraqi helpers. “There appears to be confusion on this,†Zogby said. But, he noted, less than a third think that if non-Iraqi terrorists could be prevented from crossing the border into Iraq, the insurgency would end. A majority of troops (53%) said the U.S. should double both the number of troops and bombing missions in order to control the insurgency.

The survey shows that most U.S. military personnel in-country have a clear sense of right and wrong when it comes to using banned weapons against the enemy, and in interrogation of prisoners. Four in five said they oppose the use of such internationally banned weapons as napalm and white phosphorous. And, even as more photos of prisoner abuse in Iraq surface around the world, 55% said it is not appropriate or standard military conduct to use harsh and threatening methods against insurgent prisoners in order to gain information of military value.

Three quarters of the troops had served multiple tours and had a longer exposure to the conflict: 26% were on their first tour of duty, 45% were on their second tour, and 29% were in Iraq for a third time or more.

A majority of the troops serving in Iraq said they were satisfied with the war provisions from Washington. Just 30% of troops said they think the Department of Defense has failed to provide adequate troop protections, such as body armor, munitions, and armor plating for vehicles like HumVees. Only 35% said basic civil infrastructure in Iraq, including roads, electricity, water service, and health care, has not improved over the past year. Three of every four were male respondents, with 63% under the age of 30.

The survey included 944 military respondents interviewed at several undisclosed locations throughout Iraq. The names of the specific locations and specific personnel who conducted the survey are being withheld for security purposes. Surveys were conducted face-to-face using random sampling techniques. The margin of error for the survey, conducted Jan. 18 through Feb. 14, 2006, is +/- 3.3 percentage points.

http://www.zogby.com/search/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1075

[poccnr]

The man behind the numbers

By Michael Barone

Posted 2/8/04

Ask just about anyone in the political world who the most controversial pollster is, and you'll get the same answer: John Zogby. Some in the political world swear by him; others swear at the mention of his name. Zogby admits that some of his methods are unorthodox. But his numbers have sometimes been far closer to election results than other pollsters', as when he showed the surge toward Al Gore in the last three days of the 2000 presidential campaign.

Zogby, 55, did not start off to be a pollster. He grew up in a Lebanese-American family in gritty Utica, N.Y. He taught history and political science at area colleges and was, in his words, "a left-wing political activist." In 1981 he and his brother James, now head of the Arab-American Institute, started a political consulting firm. They parted in 1984, and John Zogby became a full-time consultant, making political ads, advising on strategy, helping fundraising, and conducting polls in campaigns in upstate New York. As the demand for polling grew, he dropped the other work.

Zogby's controversial reputation among politicos has not prevented him from attracting commercial clients. He has conducted surveys for big corporations like Altria, Coca-Cola, Microsoft, Cisco, and MCI on public attitudes, customer and employee satisfaction, and lobbying issues and for nonprofits like the United Way and St. Jude Children's Research Hospital.

Zogby's breakthrough came in 1994, when he was polling for a group of upstate radio stations and the New York Post. In late October others showed New York Gov. Mario Cuomo leading in his race for re-election. Zogby showed Republican challenger George Pataki ahead. Pataki won, and Zogby became a nationally known pollster. In 1997, he showed New Jersey Gov. Christie Whitman leading by 1 percentage point--the final margin--while others had her far ahead. His results drew contracts from Reuters in 1996 and MSNBC in 2000.

In 2000 Zogby drew maximum attention. During much of October, George W. Bush had small leads over Al Gore in most polls. But after the news on the Thursday before the election of Bush's 1976 DUI, Zogby's tracking polls showed movement to Gore and ended with him in the lead. Gore did indeed win the popular vote, and in some quarters Zogby was hailed as a prophet.

But not among many of his fellow pollsters. Zogby admits that some of his methods are unusual. Most pollsters use random digit dialing so they won't miss those with unlisted numbers. Zogby says there is no political difference between people with listed and unlisted phones, and his interviewers call only listed numbers. "It reduces caller fatigue and unproductive interviews," he says. Most pollsters place calls only in the evening, when most people are home; Zogby's interviewers call all day long and, he says, reach people who aren't reachable from 6 to 9 p.m.

"Zogby is not a reputable pollster," opines Warren Mitofsky, head of Mitofsky International, one of the two firms conducting 2004 exit polls for the broadcast and cable news networks. "He is more a salesman and a self-promoter than a pollster."

Source: US News

Who is Warren Mitofsky:

....[Warren] Mitofsky started conducting exit polls in 1967 for CBS News and developed the projection system and analysis system used by CBS and later by a consortium of news organizations that conducted national exit polls.

"He was the father of exit polling," said Andrew Kohut, director of the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press. "And he pioneered exit polling overseas."

Exit polling surveys voters from a random sample of precincts after they have cast their ballots to quickly determine which candidates voters supported and why they voted the way they did.

With fellow researcher Joseph Waksberg, Mitofsky helped invent a way to sample households by telephone to efficiently reach people with unlisted as well as listed phone numbers. The random digit dial method now is a survey research standard. Waksberg died in January at age 90.

Mitofsky was known for his willingness to share his strong opinions. Many colleagues have experienced "the creativity, passion and dedication that he has brought to his work and have the scars to prove it," said Murray Edelman, a pollster and longtime co-worker.

Mitofsky directed the first network election pool, Voter Research & Surveys, in the 1990 and 1992 elections. In 1993, he founded Mitofsky International; its primary business was conducting exit polls in countries including Russia, Mexico and the Philippines.

Since 2003 Mitofsky International and Edison Media Research have conducted U.S. exit polls for The Associated Press and television networks.

Mitofsky's early survey work was for the U.S. Census Bureau, where he designed surveys that looked at poverty and other social concerns. He led several survey research organizations over his career, including as president of the American Association for Public Opinion Research and the National Council of Public Polls...."

Source: http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/09/03/ap/politics/mainD8JT3UDO0.shtml