On a serious note - Deadly H5N1 Avian Influenza Pandemic Flu

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Just watched a special report on ABC Primetime on this.

Warning: Deadly H5N1 Type A Influenza Pandemic Likely Coming

To consider the impact of a sustained H5N1 influenza pandemic in the United States, it is reasonable to consider it possible that 10s of millions of Americans might die from such an epidemic were no vaccine available and quarantines employed. Even with a vaccine available, if it is developed and effectively administered, it is reasonable to consider an extremely conservative estimate of some few million US people killed by a sustained H5N1 pandemic. In the 3rd world where health services are fragile and inefficient, fatalities will surely exceed several hundred million people.

The World Health Organization (WHO) has raised the specter of human-to-human transmission of deadly H5N1 avian influenza following confirmation that two Vietnamese brothers had contracted the virus and one had died. WHO confirmed that laboratory results had found the two brothers from northern Vietnam had been infected with the H5N1 avian influenza virus. According to WHO, "All evidence to date suggests that isolated instances of limited, unsustained human-to-human transmission can be expected from avian influenza viruses in humans." Seven of Vietnam's total 27 H5N1-related human deaths have occurred in the last three weeks (first 3 weeks of January 2005).

The H5N1 avian influenza has also spread to felines. According to WHO there is evidence suggesting that H5N1 avian influenza was expanding its range of mammal hosts, including captive tigers and experimentally infected domestic cats.

There is growing evidence that limited human-to-human transmission of H5N1 is occurring.

Other strains of Influenzavirus Type A have made their way into the human population from birds and/or intermediate species, e.g., swine, and have achieved sustained human-to-human transmission. More well known examples of Type A flu pandemics in the human population include the 1968 Hong Kong flu...

...which killed 700,000 people worldwide. The most severe influenza epidemic of recent times was the 1918 Spanish Influenza epidemic which killed more than 20 million people worldwide and infected approximately 50% of the population of some countries, e.g., Switzerland at that time.

It has been estimated, based on the mortality rates of those humans who have been infected with H5N1 avian influenza, that more than 70% of infected individuals might die from a sustained human-to-human H5N1 pandemic.

As of 5 January 2005, the H5N1 virus had caused 45 confirmed human cases, of which 32 were fatal, or a little over 70% fatality. In comparison, SARS had an initial fatality rate of approximately 13% and was very inefficiently transmitted from one person to another when compared to influenza.

Were a sustained global pandemic of H5N1 influenza to develop, it is entirely possible that some billions - with a "B" - of humans, certainly hundreds of millions, could die from the disease worldwide. There is currently no vaccine for H5N1 influenza though efforts are underway in different countries to develop a human vaccine.

Clearly, it is only a matter of time until H5N1 Type A influenza becomes a global pandemic with potentially catastrophic impact. It is now time to pay attention to H5N1 Type A influenza.

Professor Robert E. Lee, M.S., M.S.W., L.C.S.W.

Brazil Offers to Produce Asian Bird Flu Vaccine for Global Consumption.

Written by Melina Fernandes

Thursday, 15 September 2005

Brazil presented a proposal to the World Health Organization (WHO) to be chosen as one of the international production centers for a vaccine against Asian bird flu. The proposal was introduced at the 2nd European Conference on Influenza, which began on Sunday, September 11, and ended Wednesday, September 14, in Malta.

Asian bird flu is caused by the H5N1 subtype of the influenza virus, the same as the type responsible for the Spanish flu. The death rate is high. To the point where both the WHO and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) are worried about the possibility of a pandemic outbreak of the disease.

According to Brazil's secretary of Health Surveillance, Jarbas Barbosa, a plan drawn up by specialists in the Brazilian Ministry of Health should be concluded and submitted in October. The objective is for municipalities and states to take preventive measures.

The director of the São Paulo Butantã Institute, Isaias Raw, represented Brazil in Malta. The institute is responsible for 82% of the Brazil's vaccine production, including flu vaccine.

Barbosa observes that the Brazilian proposal may be accepted, since few countries have shown an interest in producing a vaccine to combat the Asian bird flu virus, in light of the highly mutable nature of the virus.

He points out that the WHO intends to reserve a strategic stockpile of the vaccine for use in prevention in case of a global epidemic, and Brazil's self-sufficiency would be welcome.

The vaccine is still not being manufactured, but the WHO has already developed the seed lot. "Our expectation is that, when the product is ready for multiplication, we can initiate production of the vaccine (...) in Brazil in 2006, of at least 100 thousand doses to keep in stock for a quick response in case of a pandemic outbreak," he adds.