Poll: Economy Beyond Tweaking — Needs Big Jolt

[underwater]

Thursday, January 16, 2003

By Dana Blanton

Almost all Americans think the country's economy today is in bad shape, and a plurality ranks the economy as a higher priority for the federal government than the war on terrorism.

The latest FOX News poll, conducted January 14-15 by Opinion Dynamics Corp., shows that few Americans rate the current condition of the economy positively. Today, 13 percent think the economy is in excellent or good shape, down from 24 percent six months ago and 28 percent last January. Overwhelmingly the public says the economy is in only fair (46 percent) or poor (40 percent) shape.

These results lead a majority to say the economy needs a "big jolt" (60 percent) as opposed to "minor tweaking" (27 percent). What that jolt should include is the trillion-dollar question.

Last week, President Bush announced a 10-year plan to help stimulate the economy, including over $670 billion in tax cuts. Majorities favor all elements of the Bush economic and tax plan with one exception -- the stock dividend tax cut. The dividend aspect, which is one of the largest pieces of the White House proposal, is favored by a plurality (47 percent) but received the lowest level of support of all the elements and is opposed by fully 37 percent of the population.

The highest level of support is for tax cuts for small businesses, with fully 88 percent in favor of this proposal. Increasing the child tax credit for parents is favored by 78 percent, followed by ending the marriage tax penalty (74 percent favor), ending the tax on estates (67 percent favor), and accelerating tax cuts that had been planned for future years (54 percent favor).

There is bipartisan support for cutting taxes on small businesses, increasing the tax credit for families with children, and eliminating the additional taxes married couples pay. Party differences are much more evident on some of the other proposals. Republicans are more likely to favor eliminating the double taxation on stock dividends (60 percent) than are Democrats (32 percent), and also more strongly favor making the tax cuts that were scheduled for future years effective immediately (68 percent of Republicans favor and 42 percent of Democrats).

Overall, the public is divided on whether President Bush's proposed tax cuts are good for people in their situation. When asked if the cuts are fair "to people like you," 38 percent say fair and 42 percent say unfair; however, there are large differences between the parties on this question. Sixty-four percent of Republicans say the president's proposed cuts are fair compared to only 15 percent of Democrats.

It's unclear to some Americans what distinguishes the president's economic plan from the one proposed by Congressional Democrats. Over one-quarter admits they do not know the difference between the two plans.

The Republican plan has a slight edge when it comes to helping the economy, with 36 percent saying the Bush plan is more likely to make the economy grow compared to 32 percent who think the Democrats' plan will boost the economy. Keeping your money in your pocket is a place the Republicans get the nod. Forty-one percent think GOPers want individuals "to keep more of your own money" while 30 percent think the Democrats and 12 percent say neither party wants you to keep your money in your pocket.

"After 9/11, partisans across the spectrum rallied behind the president and that carried over on issues like the economy and other domestic policy concerns," comments Opinion Dynamics President John Gorman. "Now it is clear on the economy and taxes that partisan differences are reappearing as strongly as ever."

Both the Republicans and Democrats receive equal doses of skepticism about what motivated their proposed plans. When asked which political party's plan is more likely to be based on politics than on what is good for the country, about one-third of the public says the Republicans' plan, one-third says the Democrats' plan, and 16 percent say both plans were based on politics.

Today, 63 percent of the public approve and 28 disapprove of the job Bush is doing as president. While still impressive, the president's job approval rating has been on a gradual decline. Six months ago about 70 percent approved of Bush's job performance and a year ago 83 percent approved.

If former President Bill Clinton were still president today, 39 percent think he would be doing a better job than Bush handling the economy, 29 percent say Clinton would be doing a worse job and 28 percent think their job performances would be about the same.

When asked the same question but focused on handling the war on terrorism, 24 percent think Clinton would be outperforming Bush, 48 percent think Clinton would be doing a worse job and 22 percent think there would be no difference between the two.

Iraq and North Korea

Iraq is seen as more of a threat to the United States, but North Korea isn't far behind. About 40 percent of the public think Iraq poses the greater immediate threat, 33 percent say North Korea is the bigger problem and 18 percent see both countries as equally threatening to Americans.

A majority of Americans remain in support of disarming Iraq and removing Saddam from power (67 percent support, 25 percent oppose). As has been the case in the past, Republicans are much stronger supporters of taking military action against Iraq than are Democrats (82 percent and 52 percent respectively).

Few people think Saddam will resign and go into exile. Fully 78 percent think it is more likely that the United States will go to war with Iraq than think Saddam will go into exile and war will be prevented (10 percent).

21. Do you support or oppose U.S. military action TO DISARM IRAQ AND REMOVE Iraqi President Saddam Hussein?

Support

14-15 Jan 03** 67%

17-18 Dec 02** 65%

19-20 Nov 02** 68%

22-23 Oct 02 LV** 62%

8-9 Oct 02 LV** 72%

24-25 Sep 02 58%

8-9 Sep 02 66%

6-7 Aug 02 69%

9-10 Jul 02 72%

30 Apr-1 May 02 70%

30-31 Jan 02 74%

28-29 Nov 01 77%

[bigmahs]

People fail to realise another terrorist attack would absolutely CRIPPLE THE ECONOMY. It should be priority number 1.

They got their shit together the economy is not that bad. It's not late 90's nothing will ever be that good unless we have another tech revolution like the internet. On a fundemental standpoint the valuations or Tech bubble of the 90's was dangerous for our economy. The economy is still showing moderate growth year over year unemployemt is high but that could be due to increases in productivity which limit's the need for extra labor especially if demand has slowed. Companies have drastically cut back spending which is 1/3rd of the equation of GDP and as soon as that picks up the economy will grow at a faster rate. Companies profits are improving and my geuss the cost cutting that companies are incorporating includes reduction in debt and interest payed on that debt. This will give co's more of an oppurtunity to increase spending. In due time the economic cycle will start it's positive expansion.

[bigpoppanils]

on monday, WSJ reported that the economy contracted during the 4th quarter

there is still a major capacity glut in the automotive, airline, and telecom sectors; and real estate investment trusts are starting to post losses; investment banking is still weak

[bigmahs]

Originally posted by bigpoppanils

on monday, WSJ reported that the economy contracted during the 4th quarter

there is still a major capacity glut in the automotive, airline, and telecom sectors; and real estate investment trusts are starting to post losses; investment banking is still weak

But overall the year I feel will post positive growth not alot but some.

The automotive industry ??? Ford just raised it's forcasts for the upcoming quarter. The 3oth is judgement day for 4th quarter results. 4%in the 3rd quarter economists are expecting 1.4 for the 4th hopefull we match or beat.

[bigpoppanils]

Originally posted by bigmahs

But overall the year posted positive growth not alot but some.

The automotive industry ??? Ford just raised it's forcasts for the upcoming quarter. The 31st is judgement day for 4th quarter results. 4%in the 3rd quarter economists are expecting 1.4 for the 4th hopefull we match or beat.

i meant global car industry...and ford is being too optimistic

[underwater]

Originally posted by bigpoppanils

i meant global car industry...and ford is being too optimistic

ford is a joke....mustangs are ugly...the focus is like driving a go-cart....the only thing i like is the explorer....and thats not even that great...