TIME Poll: Bush opens up double digit lead

[BRIANC1046]

go to gallup.com and read how their political polls are conducted.. they have been polling for many years now.. and they clearly explain how they get a correct representation of registered voters.. I've yet to see the same explanation from the Time magazine poll.. we still don't know exaclty how it was conducted?

your right.. I was not aware that the gallup poll was that small also..

[igloo]

go to gallup.com and read how their political polls are conducted.. they have been polling for many years now.. and they clearly explain how they get a correct representation of registered voters.. I've yet to see the same explanation from the Time magazine poll.. we still don't know exaclty how it was conducted?

your right.. I was not aware that the gallup poll was that small also..

Son, do you really think that Gallup has some secret recipe of how they get a "random sample" or registered or likely voters that differs much from say the TIME poll......or the NEWSWEEK poll (I wish I kept the article I saw-they provided very comprehensive data breakdown) or the Pew Research Center, or Princeton survey (which I believe Newsweek used both those in various polls)...

You are being ridiculous..........I know you dislike Bush and are for Kerry.......but don't blame the messengers (polls) because they are delivering results unfavorable to you.....

The Gallup poll that you love has Bush ahead by seven points.....pretty close to the 11 point margins of TIME and Newsweek (the polls you diminish that use the same polling methods)

I will meet you in the middle because I am tired, call it a 9 point current Bush lead, and let this die.......

[jtk4]

so no one really knows how they determine who to call.

I do no trust them at all

[BRIANC1046]

very interesting.. rassumssen thinks the Newsweek and Time polls are off also.. and found some problems with their polling..

Differences Between Polls

Full Week Tracking Update

Sept 2 Bush + 2.8

August 26 Bush + 0.3

August 19 Kerry + 1.2

August 12 Kerry + 2.8

August 5 Kerry + 1.9

RasmussenReports.com

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

September 6, 2004--We have been flooded with e-mails asking (in varying tones of politeness) why our poll results seem different from those released by Time and Newsweek.

There are two basic explanations, one involving our polling data and one involving the newsmagazines. For those who need to know the answer before the explanation, the bottom line is that the President is ahead by 4 to 5 points at this time. That's a significant improvement over the past few weeks, but not a double digit lead.

Our current poll (showing the President ahead by just over a point) includes a Saturday sample that is way out of synch with all the days before it and with the Sunday data that followed. In fact, Saturday's one-day sample showed a big day for Kerry while all the days surrounding it showed a decent lead for the President.

It seems likely that Saturday reflects a rogue sample (especially since it was over a holiday weekend). But, it remains in our 3-day rolling average for one more day (Tuesday's report). If we drop the Saturday sample from our data, Bush is currently ahead by about 4 percentage points in the Rasmussen Reports Tracking Poll.

That's still a smaller lead than shown by Time and Newsweek. Those polls appear to have the mirror image problem of a Los Angeles Times poll in June reportedly showing Kerry with a huge lead. That LA Times survey included too many Democrats in their sample. Today, it seems likely that Time and Newsweek included too many Republicans.

Time reports that Republicans will vote for Bush by an 89% to 9% margin; Democrats for Kerry by an 80% to 9% margin; and, unaffiliated voters for Bush 43% to 39%.

Four years ago, 35% of voters were Republicans, 39% were Democrats, and the rest were unaffiliated. If you apply those percentages to the Time internals, you find Bush up by about 3 percentage points. If you do the same with the Newsweek internal numbers, you find Bush with a six point lead. Those results are very close to the Rasmussen Reports data (excluding the Saturday sample).

All of this leads me to conclude that the President is currently ahead by 4 or 5 percentage points.

For those who say turnout might be different this time, I agree. It might be different. One of our great challenges between now and Election Day is to figure out how much (if at all) the turnout will change from historic norms. Partisans from both sides seem convinced that there are special circumstance that will increase turnout for their team. Others speculate that their may be a smaller number of unaffiliated voters since events of the past four years have caused people to take sides.

Whatever the turnout differences may be, they will not be big enough to match the implications of the Time and Newsweek polls.

As always, it's useful to use common sense when reviewing poll data. If a poll suggests that 10 or 20 percent of Americans are changing their mind on a regular basis, it should be viewed with caution. Most of the time, you will find that the partisan mix of the polling sample is changing more than the actual perceptions of voters.

Yesterday, we released a brief assessment of the Bush Bounce. Based upon our 7-day Tracking data (less susceptible to one-day rogue samples), it appears that the President has gained more than five points over a three week period of time. Given the Swift Boat issue and the Republican National Convention, that seems to be a reasonable measure of the shift.