Why we cannot win........

[fresinha12]

Why We Cannot Win

by Al Lorentz

by Al Lorentz

Before I begin, let me state that I am a soldier currently deployed in Iraq, I am not an armchair quarterback. Nor am I some politically idealistic and naïve young soldier, I am an old and seasoned Non-Commissioned Officer with nearly 20 years under my belt. Additionally, I am not just a soldier with a muds-eye view of the war, I am in Civil Affairs and as such, it is my job to be aware of all the events occurring in this country and specifically in my region.

I have come to the conclusion that we cannot win here for a number of reasons. Ideology and idealism will never trump history and reality.

When we were preparing to deploy, I told my young soldiers to beware of the "political solution." Just when you think you have the situation on the ground in hand, someone will come along with a political directive that throws you off the tracks.

I believe that we could have won this un-Constitutional invasion of Iraq and possibly pulled off the even more un-Constitutional occupation and subjugation of this sovereign nation. It might have even been possible to foist democracy on these people who seem to have no desire, understanding or respect for such an institution. True the possibility of pulling all this off was a long shot and would have required several hundred billion dollars and even more casualties than we’ve seen to date but again it would have been possible, not realistic or necessary but possible.

Here are the specific reasons why we cannot win in Iraq.

First, we refuse to deal in reality. We are in a guerilla war, but because of politics, we are not allowed to declare it a guerilla war and must label the increasingly effective guerilla forces arrayed against us as "terrorists, criminals and dead-enders."

This implies that there is a zero sum game at work, i.e. we can simply kill X number of the enemy and then the fight is over, mission accomplished, everybody wins. Unfortunately, this is not the case. We have few tools at our disposal and those are proving to be wholly ineffective at fighting the guerillas.

The idea behind fighting a guerilla army is not to destroy its every man (an impossibility since he hides himself by day amongst the populace). Rather the idea in guerilla warfare is to erode or destroy his base of support.

So long as there is support for the guerilla, for every one you kill two more rise up to take his place. More importantly, when your tools for killing him are precision guided munitions, raids and other acts that create casualties among the innocent populace, you raise the support for the guerillas and undermine the support for yourself. (A 500-pound precision bomb has a casualty-producing radius of 400 meters minimum; do the math.)

Second, our assessment of what motivates the average Iraqi was skewed, again by politically motivated "experts." We came here with some fantasy idea that the natives were all ignorant, mud-hut dwelling camel riders who would line the streets and pelt us with rose petals, lay palm fronds in the street and be eternally grateful. While at one time there may have actually been support and respect from the locals, months of occupation by our regular military forces have turned the formerly friendly into the recently hostile.

Attempts to correct the thinking in this regard are in vain; it is not politically correct to point out the fact that the locals are not only disliking us more and more, they are growing increasingly upset and often overtly hostile. Instead of addressing the reasons why the locals are becoming angry and discontented, we allow politicians in Washington DC to give us pat and convenient reasons that are devoid of any semblance of reality.

We are told that the locals are not upset because we have a hostile, aggressive and angry Army occupying their nation. We are told that they are not upset at the police state we have created, or at the manner of picking their representatives for them. Rather we are told, they are upset because of a handful of terrorists, criminals and dead enders in their midst have made them upset, that and of course the ever convenient straw man of "left wing media bias."

Third, the guerillas are filling their losses faster than we can create them. This is almost always the case in guerilla warfare, especially when your tactics for battling the guerillas are aimed at killing guerillas instead of eroding their support. For every guerilla we kill with a "smart bomb" we kill many more innocent civilians and create rage and anger in the Iraqi community. This rage and anger translates into more recruits for the terrorists and less support for us.

We have fallen victim to the body count mentality all over again. We have shown a willingness to inflict civilian casualties as a necessity of war without realizing that these same casualties create waves of hatred against us. These angry Iraqi citizens translate not only into more recruits for the guerilla army but also into more support of the guerilla army.

Fourth, their lines of supply and communication are much shorter than ours and much less vulnerable. We must import everything we need into this place; this costs money and is dangerous. Whether we fly the supplies in or bring them by truck, they are vulnerable to attack, most especially those brought by truck. This not only increases the likelihood of the supplies being interrupted. Every bean, every bullet and every bandage becomes infinitely more expensive.

Conversely, the guerillas live on top of their supplies and are showing every indication of developing a very sophisticated network for obtaining them. Further, they have the advantage of the close support of family and friends and traditional religious networks.

Fifth, we consistently underestimate the enemy and his capabilities. Many military commanders have prepared to fight exactly the wrong war here.

Our tactics have not adjusted to the battlefield and we are falling behind.

Meanwhile the enemy updates his tactics and has shown a remarkable resiliency and adaptability.

Because the current administration is more concerned with its image than it is with reality, it prefers symbolism to substance: soldiers are dying here and being maimed and crippled for life. It is tragic, indeed criminal that our elected public servants would so willingly sacrifice our nation's prestige and honor as well as the blood and treasure to pursue an agenda that is ahistoric and un-Constitutional.

It is all the more ironic that this un-Constitutional mission is being performed by citizen soldiers such as myself who swore an oath to uphold and defend the Constitution of the United States, the same oath that the commander in chief himself has sworn.

September 20, 2004

Al Lorentz [send him mail] is former state chairman of the Constitution Party of Texas and is a reservist currently serving with the US Army in Iraq

[obby]

Many said we would never make it to the moon too.

I respect your opinion but must mention that I myself have many family members and friends fighting in Iraq as well and not one feels the way you do. They do agree that many of the Iraqis can not be trusted but at the same time they know many who appreciate your/our efforts and look forward in leading their own Country.

Soldiers die in every war and until our technology improves more than it has already, they will continue to die. It's a WAR !!!!! My cousin Arthur Mastrapa died one day prior to coming home for Fathers Day. Although saddened by the fact we love him and respect him for his brave service. America troops have died for others benefits more than any other troops in the world.

Your services are appreciated by more people that you think !!!!!!

God Bless America, Our Troops and George W. Bush

[kramadas]

Many said we would never make it to the moon too.

We are Americans !!!!!!!!

uh huh. I'm sure thats what they said in Vietnam, Korea, Aghanistan (in 80's), Iraq (80's), South America, etc and look what thats gotten you.

Maybe the saying should be "We are Americans who can never learn from our mistakes!!!!"

[obby]

We make sooooo many mistakes but yet everyone comes to us when in need.

LOL

[kramadas]

We make sooooo many mistakes but yet everyone comes to us when in need.

LOL

who, like Iraq???

haha

[obby]

Feel free to name more if you can.

Pick up a History book CandyKidRaver. Search the web, talk to an old teacher, do something. Feed your brain with knowledge not hate.

[kramadas]

Feel free to name more if you can.

Pick up a History book CandyKidRaver. Search the web, talk to an old teacher, do something. Feed your brain with knowledge not hate.

Its alright mr knobby, truth hurts and its understandable why you might shy away from it.

[obby]

Its alright mr knobby, truth hurts and its understandable why you might shy away from it.

Great answer !!!!!! I guess you need more time. You have all the time in the world to read up on history. As much as I want to slap the list in front of you, I will leave it up to you educate yourself.

Good luck !!!!

[kramadas]

Great answer !!!!!! I guess you need more time. You have all the time in the world to read up on history. As much as I want to slap the list in front of you, I will leave it up to you educate yourself.

Good luck !!!!

Go on ahead "slap the list". While I did not deny that other countries have come for help, you cannot deny there have been many times the US has gone in and royally fucked everything up.

Tell me oh smart one...the two biggest enemies (well, Saddam, we proclaimed him an enemy) today - now, what were they doing in the 80's?

Actually, don't trouble yourself with the "list" (as I'm sure you'd include all that went on in South America - wouldn't want to embarass yourself) - just answer that one question.

[obby]

Stop wasting your brain cells. As the title above your avitar states....you're "LOST"

You keep bring up Iraq as a failure but you yourself fail to acknoledge that the war is not over. Let me skim over what occurred in our occupation of Germany after WW II. The Germans did not get on their feet until 1949-50. Until then, thousands of Germans died every winter. But look at the political and social miracle that we accomplished there. It took several years, but we did it!

[kramadas]

Stop wasting your brain cells. As the title under your avitar states....you're "LOST"

You keep bring up Iraq as a failure but you yourself fail to acknoledge that the war is not over. Let me skim over what occurred in our occupation of Germany after WW II. The Germans did not get on their feet until 1949-50. Until then, thousands of Germans died every winter. But look at the political and social miracle that we accomplished there. It took several years, but we did it!

Nice attempt but far from enough. Germany was what - more than half a century. With a westernized people. You STILL have not dealt with the other countries - sn-obby, but oh-soon-going-to-look-like-a-fool : interventions that happened in the much more recent past. Like Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan and SOuth America (80's), Cambodia, etc. And if you're going to compare interventions with whats happening today in Iraq, use similar wars, not a situation like WWII which is vastly different.

So, next time, try thinking a little before posting. About one thing you're right - I should stop wasting brain cells on trying to talk with people who are blinded by their "great leader"'s resounding (failing) neo-con policies! You see, maybe you like being UNDERGROUND, completely blind.

[obby]

LOL

You made zero sense to me there !!!!! How old are you ????? Don't even answer that.

Try and add to your notes the list of countries saved or liberated by the USA -You see the failures while I see the accomplishments - Australia/New Zealand and all the South Pacific islands (saved from the Japanese in WW2); UK (saved in WW2); France (same); most of the formerly "Western" Europe (saved in WW2 and from Communism afterwards); large chunks of South East Asia (eg Philippines) saved in WW2 and in subsequent conflicts; South Korea; parts of the Middle East (eg Kuwait) and Africa in conflicts during and since WW2.

This has been due to "direct" involvement, such as in France/Germany and the Pacific, where US forces were mainly responsible for the victories. One could also argue the "indirect" influence of the US has kept Communism in check, as well as other violent movements. I mention this not to denigrate the military involvement of other countries,but it is beyond dispute that without US activity in WW2 and the years since, this world would be a much uglier place for millions.

While regarded as the world's policeman, We have no obligation to fix the social ills of other countries. We can give them the tools. We can give them the opportunity. We can give them their lives back. Ultimately however, it is up to individual citizens to take the reins and direct the plow. Defending ourselves and others is the point. Obviously President Bush has read Alexander Hamilton's definitive words from Washington's farewell address. (Right, Washington's) Beware of foreign entanglements. Kick your enemy's butt, then give him the means to become our friend.

The liberals will continue to scratch at anything to make their points against Bush. We all know that the major objection to this war is based on hatred of the President and their belief of his illegitimacy, and not on our nation's ultimate security.

You "Raver" don't seem to grasp Afghanistan. Since Alexander the Great, this land has never been conquered. The Soviets couldn't. We just swept through there in a few months! Defining our presence as in great part social work is helping us stay long enough for stability to be established. We already achieved the most pressing part of our national interest there. Do you realize how amazing this is!???? NO !!!!!!

As for Iraq, the United States can, through building a democratic political system and a healthy economy, win the support of millions of Iraqis who are happy with the outcome of this war. A new Marshall Plan for Iraq can rebuild the middle class which has been eliminated by the terror regime of Saddam Hussein.

This just shows the huge differnce between you and I. Again, while you see and focus on the failures. I see the accomplishments!!!!! PERSPECTIVE IS KEY !!!!!!!!

[kramadas]

LOL

You made zero sense to me there !!!!! How old are you ????? Don't even answer that.

Try and add to your notes the list of countries saved or liberated by the USA -You see the failures while I see the accomplishments - Australia/New Zealand and all the South Pacific islands (saved from the Japanese in WW2); UK (saved in WW2); France (same); most of the formerly "Western" Europe (saved in WW2 and from Communism afterwards); large chunks of South East Asia (eg Philippines) saved in WW2 and in subsequent conflicts; South Korea; parts of the Middle East (eg Kuwait) and Africa in conflicts during and since WW2.

This has been due to "direct" involvement, such as in France/Germany and the Pacific, where US forces were mainly responsible for the victories. One could also argue the "indirect" influence of the US has kept Communism in check, as well as other violent movements. I mention this not to denigrate the military involvement of other countries,but it is beyond dispute that without US activity in WW2 and the years since, this world would be a much uglier place for millions.

While regarded as the world's policeman, We have no obligation to fix the social ills of other countries. We can give them the tools. We can give them the opportunity. We can give them their lives back. Ultimately however, it is up to individual citizens to take the reins and direct the plow. Defending ourselves and others is the point. Obviously President Bush has read Alexander Hamilton's definitive words from Washington's farewell address. (Right, Washington's) Beware of foreign entanglements. Kick your enemy's butt, then give him the means to become our friend.

The liberals will continue to scratch at anything to make their points against Bush. We all know that the major objection to this war is based on hatred of the President and their belief of his illegitimacy, and not on our nation's ultimate security.

You "Raver" don't seem to grasp Afghanistan. Since Alexander the Great, this land has never been conquered. The Soviets couldn't. We just swept through there in a few months! Defining our presence as in great part social work is helping us stay long enough for stability to be established. We already achieved the most pressing part of our national interest there. Do you realize how amazing this is!???? NO !!!!!!

As for Iraq, the United States can, through building a democratic political system and a healthy economy, win the support of millions of Iraqis who are happy with the outcome of this war. A new Marshall Plan for Iraq can rebuild the middle class which has been eliminated by the terror regime of Saddam Hussein.

This just shows the huge differnce between you and I. Again, while you see and focus on the failures. I see the accomplishments!!!!! PERSPECTIVE IS KEY !!!!!!!!

Poor obby - can't grasp the English language. Or just backtracking...first you say I made zero sense, then you acknowledge there were failures.

OK, let me explain to you in plain terms. World war II was over half a century ago. Germany and Japan were brought to their knees in the war, and their people were ready for an end to war. Plus, Germany was already a westernized nation (ie, no fanatical involvement in religion, etc), so it was easier to rebuild. I give you that all the countries "liberated" were during a single conflict, namely WWII. Now with regards to saving the world from communism, are you fuckin kididing me!?! Yeah, the US might have "saved" the world from communism, but what you fail to grasp is that the reason we're in this shithole is because of our very actions to save the world from communism. We trained and supported BIN LADEN to fight the soviets. Then for whatever reason, that backfired and now he is terrorist number 1. Its also funny how you did not bring up Vietnam. That was a dismal failure, with millions of deaths! In the name of "fighting communism" terrible things were done in South America. Fuckin dictators rule there now.

How about Iraq and Iran? We supported Saddam in the 1980's, again an action that has backfired on us! Two of our biggest enemies right now were people we supported 20 years ago. My point is (in case you have difficulty in comprehension) that the US keeps meddling in other's affairs - and in the most recent past this has backfired with disastrous consequences!

Yeah, maybe that is the difference between us. I tend to weigh the repercussions of our actions, while you just blithely go ahead, look at the rosy picture of something we did over half a century ago, and forget the darker parts of our history. Dude, the age of the baby boomers is over.

Another thing you tend to forget - the time when our actions were most effective in restoring peace - the time of WWII - most of the world was with us. Not so the case now.

You tell me - does it make more sense to compare Iraq to Aghanistan or Germany?? I wonder what tune you'll be singing if this turns out to be another Vietnam? Or, 20 year down the line, the next Saddam Hussein is ruling Iraq. Of course, you'd probably just blame it on the Democrats!

I still can't believe you and the other neo-cons cannot grasp the fact that this administration vaulted arrogantly into Iraq, with little planning, and fucked things up. Yeah, keep hoping things will get nice and rosy, and by next year you can plan your Disney trip to Baghdad!

Perspective is SHIT once you start blinding yourself to the realities of whats going on at ground zero.

[kramadas]

And obby, when I said we fucked up in Afghanistan I was talking about the soviet era fighting. We shall see what our current involvement brings us in a few years.

[obby]

Poor raver kid. I guess that is where you and I differ in opinions. While I believe that the US is the greatest hope the World has. You believe we are fuck ups.

At least you are a little optimistic and are willing to say "we shall see a few years from now". That must have been tough for you to write.

[mursa]

While I believe that the US is the greatest hope the World has. You believe we are fuck ups.

.

How about somewhere in the middle ?

[vicman]

obby's funny. i bet he spins happy hardcore.

[mursa]

.... obby loves america , for good or for worse , "old glory" can't and will do no harm !

[trigger55]

Obby do you know the differences between sunni muslims, shi'ite muslims, and kurds? Have you ever met any? Do you know of the centuries of violence between them and the causes of this violence? If you did, you'd understand why this war in Iraq is almost a lost cause, but on the other hand I never say anything's impossible. Lets say we actually did set up a democracy, you know who would rule? The shi'ites, they're the most fanatical muslims and US haters, I'm sure that's not what we want... they'd be a more extreme version of Iran. It's a lose-lose situation imo.

[kramadas]

Poor raver kid. I guess that is where you and I differ in opinions. While I believe that the US is the greatest hope the World has. You believe we are fuck ups.

At least you are a little optimistic and are willing to say "we shall see a few years from now". That must have been tough for you to write.

haha - haven't been a "raver kid" in years. Listen, son, you must still be young - Its time you got out of the UNDERGROUND and wake up to the realities of the world. Just wishing the bad to go away, and turning your blinders on doesn't make the bad go away. One day you will learn.

[kramadas]

Obby do you know the differences between sunni muslims, shi'ite muslims, and kurds? Have you ever met any? Do you know of the centuries of violence between them and the causes of this violence? If you did, you'd understand why this war in Iraq is almost a lost cause, but on the other hand I never say anything's impossible. Lets say we actually did set up a democracy, you know who would rule? The shi'ites, they're the most fanatical muslims and US haters, I'm sure that's not what we want... they'd be a more extreme version of Iran. It's a lose-lose situation imo.

He lives in his little fantasy world and trusts in Bush no matter what - I mean he's pinned all his hopes on Dick and Bush!

Maybe thats why he can't come out and objectively say where Bush fucked up in this war.

[kramadas]

On a positive note though obby - optimism is good - just not blind trust, ie, optimism with blinders on.

[obby]

[mursa]

He lives in his little fantasy world and trusts in Bush no matter what - I mean he's pinned all his hopes on Dick and Bush!

Maybe thats why he can't come out and objectively say where Bush fucked up in this war.

Saying " im sorry" or " i fucked up" doesn't exist for some , I find it a admirable and humble act to do so .

[obby]

I'm sorry we didn't take Hussein out in Gulf War I !!!!!!!!!!!