Jump to content
Clubplanet Nightlife Community

Gallup Poll: Kerry wins, but internals show little change in opinions


igloo

Recommended Posts

Kerry Wins Debate

John Kerry won the debate Thursday night, 53% to 37%, according to a random sample of 615 registered voters who watched the event. Almost half of the viewers said they felt more favorable about the senator because of the debate, and 60% said Kerry expressed himself more clearly than did President Bush. Despite the positive assessment, viewers said they favored Bush in handling the war in Iraq and serving as commander in chief, little changed from opinions expressed before the debate. And a majority of viewers said it was Bush who better demonstrated he is tough enough for the job.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/content/?ci=13237

Link to comment
Share on other sites

For those who have been objective about the debate and the Gallup poll and have demonstrated a hint of intellect (that leaves you out mursa)

The Race is On

With voters widely viewing Kerry as the debate’s winner, Bush’s lead in the NEWSWEEK poll has evaporated

WEB EXCLUSIVE

By Brian Braiker

Newsweek

Updated: 6:04 p.m. ET Oct. 2, 2004Oct. 2 - With a solid majority of voters concluding that John Kerry outperformed George W. Bush in the first presidential debate on Thursday, the president’s lead in the race for the White House has vanished, according to the latest NEWSWEEK poll. In the first national telephone poll using a fresh sample, NEWSWEEK found the race now statistically tied among all registered voters, 47 percent of whom say they would vote for Kerry and 45 percent for George W. Bush in a three-way race.

advertisement

Removing Independent candidate Ralph Nader, who draws 2 percent of the vote, widens the Kerry-Edwards lead to three points with 49 percent of the vote versus the incumbent’s 46 percent. Four weeks ago the Republican ticket, coming out of a successful convention in New York, enjoyed an 11-point lead over Kerry-Edwards with Bush pulling 52 percent of the vote and the challenger just 41 percent.

Among the three-quarters (74 percent) of registered voters who say they watched at least some of Thursday’s debate, 61 percent see Kerry as the clear winner, 19 percent pick Bush as the victor and 16 percent call it a draw. After weeks of being portrayed as a verbose “flip-flopper†by Republicans, Kerry did better than a majority (56 percent) had expected. Only about 11 percent would say the same for the president’s performance while more than one-third (38 percent) said the incumbent actually did worse that they had expected. Thirty-nine percent of Republicans felt their man out-debated the challenger but a full third (33 percent) say they felt Kerry won.

RELATED STORY

Eleanor Clift: The Heat Is on Dick Cheney Now

Kerry’s perceived victory may be attributed to the fact that, by a wide margin (62 percent to 26 percent), debate watchers felt the senator came across as more confident than the president. More than half (56 percent) also see Kerry has having a better command of the facts than Bush (37 percent). As a result, the challenger’s favorability ratings (52 percent, versus 40 percent unfavorable) are better than Bush’s, who at 49 percent (and 46 percent unfavorable), has dipped below the halfway mark for the first time since July. Kerry, typically characterized as aloof and out of touch by his opponents, came across as more personally likeable than Bush (47 percent to the president’s 41 percent).

In fact, Kerry’s numbers have improved across the board, while Bush’s vulnerabilities have become more pronounced. The senator is seen as more intelligent and well-informed (80 percent, up six points over last month, compared to Bush’s steady 59 percent); as having strong leadership skills (56 percent, also up 6 points, but still less than Bush’s 62 percent) and as someone who can be trusted to make the right calls in an international crisis (51 percent, up five points and tied with Bush).

Meanwhile, Bush’s approval ratings have dropped to below the halfway mark (46 percent) for the first time since the GOP convention in late August. Nearly half of all voters (48 percent) say they do not want to see Bush re-elected, while 46 percent say they do. Still, a majority of voters (55 percent versus 29 percent) believe the president will be re-hired on Nov. 2.

Neither man was seen as a particularly stronger leader (44 percent Bush, 47 percent Kerry), more negative (37 percent Bush, 36 percent Kerry) or more honest (43 percent Bush, 45 percent Kerry).

Perhaps because the debate topic focused on foreign policy—and largely was dominated by the war in Iraq—that issue rates higher as a voter concern than it did a month ago. Twenty percent of all voters say Iraq is the issue that will most determine their vote, up from 15 percent. Tied with Iraq is the economy (21 percent), and still leading the list is terrorism and homeland security (26 percent). And key for the president is the fact that he is the preferred man on the issues more important to voters. On homeland security, Bush is preferred 52 percent to Kerry’s 40 percent (a significant spread, but a narrowing one: Last month the spread, in the president’s favor, was 58 percent to 34 percent). On Iraq Bush is preferred 49 percent to 44 percent (compared to 54 percent versus 39 percent a month ago). Kerry is even with the president on the question of which man is better suited to guide foreign policy in general (48 percent Bush to the challenger’s 46 percent) and clamping down on the proliferation of nuclear materiel (47 percent Bush, 43 percent Kerry).

Where Kerry clearly leads is on domestic issues, which will be the focus of the third debate on Oct. 13, in Tempe, Ariz. The Democrat is preferred to Bush by double-digit spreads on who would be better at handling the economy (52 percent to 39 percent), foreign competition (54 percent to 36 percent) and health care (56 percent to 34 percent).

Although the subject of the draft was only briefly addressed during the debate, four in ten voters (38 percent) believe that because of the war in Iraq—which 50 percent of all voters now view as unnecessary—a second Bush administration would reinstate the draft. Just 18 percent feel the same would happen if Kerry were elected. Nearly two thirds (62 percent) feel a draft should not be considered at this time and 28 percent said a draft should at least be considered. But only 46 percent feel going to war was the right decision in the first place with just as many (45 percent) under the impression that the administration deliberately misled the nation into war with falsified evidence of weapons of mass destruction.

Finally, echoing a recurring refrain of Kerry’s, more than half of all voters (51 percent) think the Bush administration has not done enough to engage other nations (43 percent feel they have done enough or even gone too far in that direction as it is).

For the NEWSWEEK poll, Princeton Survey Research Associates interviewed 1,013 registered voters aged 18 and older between Sept. 30 and Oct. 2 by telephone. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Kerry Pulls Ahead of Bush in Newsweek Poll

Sat Oct 2, 2004 06:54 PM ET

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democrat challenger John Kerry has pulled ahead of President Bush in a poll published by Newsweek magazine showing Thursday's television debate erased the lead Bush had enjoyed for the last month.

In a two-way contest, the Kerry/Edwards ticket in the Nov. 2 presidential election led by 49 percent against 46 percent for Bush/Cheney, according to 1,013 registered voters polled by Princeton Survey Research Associates International.

According to the poll, 61 percent of Americans who watched the first presidential debate on Sept. 30 said Kerry won, 19 percent said Bush won and 16 percent said they tied. The number of debate viewers surveyed was 770.

Bush's job approval rating dropped two points from the Sept. 9-10 Newsweek poll to 46 percent -- a 6-point drop since the Republican national convention a month ago. Fifty-seven percent of all poll respondents -- a total of 1,144 adults -- said they were dissatisfied with the way things were going in the United States now.

Sixty percent of registered voters said Bush administration policies and diplomatic efforts had led to more anti-Americanism around the world and 51 percent said the administration had not done enough to involve major allies and international organizations in trying to achieve its foreign policy goals, the poll showed.

However, 46 percent of registered voters said they would still like to see Bush re-elected, against 48 percent who said they would not like to see him re-elected.

When registered voters were asked who would handle issues better overall, Bush led Kerry 52 to 40 percent on terrorism and homeland security.

Kerry scored better on the economy -- 52 percent against 39 percent -- and health care, including Medicare -- 56 percent to 34 percent. He was also seen to be better at handling American jobs and foreign competition -- 54 percent against 36 percent.

For questions put to registered voters, the margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points; to debate viewers, it was 4.1 points; and for total adults, 3 points.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Presidential Tracking Poll: Bush-Kerry

Updated Daily by Noon Eastern Election 2004

Presidential Ballot

Bush 48.6%

Kerry 45.6%

Other 2.1%

Not Sure 3.7%

RasmussenReports.com

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saturday October 02, 2004--The latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows President George W. Bush with 49% of the vote and Senator John Kerry with 46%.

These results are based upon a survey of 3,000 Likely Voters conducted Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday night. As a result, just over one-third of the interviews were conducted following Thursday night's Presidential Debate. Results from last night's sample were similar to the preceding nights. Monday's update will be the first based entirely upon post-debate interviews.

In last night's sample, 6% of voters say they changed their minds following the debate. This includes 3% who are now voting for Kerry, 2% for Bush, and 1% who are now undecided.

The Rasmussen Reports Electoral College projections now show the President ahead 213-169. Rasmussen Reports has recently released state election polls for Arkansas, California, Colorado, Georgia, Indiana, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, West Virginia, Washington, Virginia, and Wisconsin. Additional state election polls will be released at 5:00 p.m. Eastern today. The Electoral College projection will be updated if appropriate.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Go Figure......If anyone has access to the LA TImes ( I Don't), please post the poll in its entirety....

LA TIMES POLL SUNDAY: Bush's favorability rating among debate viewers actually improved slightly (although within the survey's margin of error). Before debate, 51% of watchers viewed Bush favorably, 49% unfavorably; after, numbers were 52% and 47%... Few who watched Thursday's debate say it will change their votes, but most agree that Bush was bested by his Democratic challenger.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

most of these polls have little consequence, other then perhaps to help drive the campaigns in terms of strategy. I don’t believe the debates do anything, other then to solidify the candidate’s position to his core voters, and perhaps sway the undecided voters whose numbers are fairly low to begin with. the presidential race will be a statistical dead heat by the time election day comes around.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

most of these polls have little consequence, other then perhaps to help drive the campaigns in terms of strategy. I don’t believe the debates do anything, other then to solidify the candidate’s position to his core voters, and perhaps sway the undecided voters whose numbers are fairly low to begin with. the presidential race will be a statistical dead heat by the time election day comes around.

co-sign

Link to comment
Share on other sites

most of these polls have little consequence, other then perhaps to help drive the campaigns in terms of strategy. I don’t believe the debates do anything, other then to solidify the candidate’s position to his core voters, and perhaps sway the undecided voters whose numbers are fairly low to begin with. the presidential race will be a statistical dead heat by the time election day comes around.

I do mostly agree with you...although I think if Bush performed better in the first debate, I think he could have solidified his "poll" lead and keep the momentum going...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

..although I think if Bush performed better in the first debate, I think he could have solidified his "poll" lead and keep the momentum going...

Would'a ! , Should'a ! Could'a !!! ...he didn't and therefore lets move on .

Link to comment
Share on other sites

After First Debate, Bush Still Leads Kerry

Washington Post Poll Shows President Holding 5-Point Edge

By Richard Morin and Christopher Muste

Washington Post Staff Writers

Monday, October 4, 2004; 5:00 PM

President Bush continues to lead rival Sen. John F. Kerry among likely voters despite surging enthusiasm for Kerry among Democrats and new doubts about whether the president has a clear plan to deal with terrorism and the situation in Iraq, according to the Washington Post tracking poll.

In the aftermath of last week's presidential debate, Bush currently leads Kerry 51 percent to 46 percent among those most likely to vote, according to polling conducted Friday through Sunday. Independent candidate Ralph Nader claims 1 percent of the hypothetical vote.

But the president held only a 3-point advantage among all registered voters, down from 7 points in a Post-ABC News survey conducted before last week's presidential debate. Kerry is particularly popular among occasional voters -- a sign that the election may hinge for Kerry on his campaign's ability to get newly registered voters and those with only a spotty voting record to go to the polls.

In order to provide a daily snapshot of the campaign, the Post began Friday to conduct nightly election surveys. Each day now through the election, the results of the previous three days of interviewing will be averaged together and reported on washingtonpost.com.

A total of 1,470 registered voters were interviewed for the first wave of the tracking survey, including 1,169 who were determined to be likely voters based on voting intention, interest in the campaign and past voting history. Margin of sampling error for results based on either sample is about plus or minus 3 percentage points.

By a ratio of more than 2-1, these likely voters interviewed over the weekend said Kerry won the first debate on foreign policy and terrorism. As a result, the Democrat revived his flagging campaign and sparked a new wave of enthusiasm among his supporters.

The proportion of likely voters with a favorable view of Kerry grew from 39 percent immediately before the date to 47 percent in the latest poll. At the same time, the proportion of voters with an unfavorable of him dropped by 3 points to 42 percent. However, Bush still remains slightly more popular, with 53 percent of all likely voters saying they had a favorable impression of him.

Kerry's strong debate performance also energized his supporters while Bush's lackluster showing seems to have damped the spirits of his partisans.

Half of Kerry's voters now say they are "very enthusiastic" about their candidate, up eight points since before the debate. At the same time, the share of Bush voters who were similarly excited about their candidate dropped by eight points to 57 percent, narrowing the enthusiasm gap from 23 to 7 points in a few short days. Democrats, men, 40 to 49-year-olds and better educated Kerry supporters led the increase in the intensity of enthusiasm for him, the survey found.

Bush is still seen as the one with the clearest plan for dealing with Iraq and terrorism, although Kerry clearly made inroads on both issues during his first debate.

According to the survey, barely half -- 51 percent -- of all voters said Bush has a "clear plan" for handling the situation in Iraq, down from 55 percent before the debate. The proportion who doubted that Bush has a plan grew by 6 points to 48 percent.

At the same time, 42 percent said Kerry has a plan for Iraq -- a 5-point increase -- while the proportion who said he does not fell by four points to 52 percent.

Similarly, those who believed Bush had a clear plan for handling terrorism declined while Kerry improved, though the president still has a commanding 18-point advantage over Kerry on this issue.

Despite this movement, the latest Post poll found that other key measures of the two candidates were unchanged by the debate. Bush is still viewed by likely voters as the one best able to deal with Iraq and the terrorist threat. And more than half -- 52 percent -- said Bush is better qualified to be commander-in-chief while 43 percent said Kerry was, virtually unchanged from the pre-debate survey.

In addition, the president retained his advantage over Kerry as the candidate who would make the country safer and more secure and be the stronger leader.

Other surveys also released Monday showed large variation, suggesting great volatility in the electorate following last Thursday's debate. A poll by Gallup found support for Kerry had increased significantly since the debate and the race was now deadlocked. A Zogby poll had Bush ahead by a single percentage point, largely unchanged from a pre-debate poll. But a Pew Center for the People & the Press poll found Bush with a 5-point advantage, essentially the same as its survey released before Thursday's debate.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Who cares who won the debate the question should be who was right?

This is the same bush we have seen speak in public since he has ran for president.

someone said on Bill Maher the other night watching Bush speak is like watching a drunk man cross the street

Link to comment
Share on other sites

.

someone said on Bill Maher the other night watching Bush speak is like watching a drunk man cross the street

lol, exactly , but believe it or not .....The town drunk syndrome he seems to posses actually attracts voters and sympathy .

Link to comment
Share on other sites

lol, exactly , but believe it or not .....The town drunk syndrome he seems to posses actually attracts voters and sympathy .

You guys kill me. You really need to move past the kid comments and talk about issues. If you dont agree w/ something--fine, but the personal attacks are just ridiculous. It makes everything else you say after that worthless.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You guys kill me. You really need to move past the kid comments and talk about issues. If you dont agree w/ something--fine, but the personal attacks are just ridiculous. It makes everything else you say after that worthless.

Boy you sound just like the democrats when the republicans were talking about the swift boat veterens

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Boy you sound just like the democrats when the republicans were talking about the swift boat veterens

Comparing the Swift Boat Veterans and someone who launches a personal attack for the sake of launching a personal attack on the President is absurd...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Boy you sound just like the democrats when the republicans were talking about the swift boat veterens

That has about zero to do with what I am talking about. It has to do w/ making lame posts about "town drunk syndrome" and other personal jabs that devalue how the rest of us read your posts. While I may not agree w/ some views, I respect those out there who dont resort to cheap shots.

Now, I wish all of talk about Kerry in Vietnam and President Bush in the National Guard would go away. I dont think it has anything to do w/ this election.

Having said that, the Swift Boat guys are vets and their opinion is that Kerry betrayed them and his country. I tend to agree with this assessment on some levels, but that is irrelavent. I also think that President Bush probably made some mistakes in the Texas Air National Guard. Again, none of this matters when it comes to my vote.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You guys kill me. You really need to move past the kid comments and talk about issues. If you dont agree w/ something--fine, but the personal attacks are just ridiculous. It makes everything else you say after that worthless.

You never called Kerry flip-flooper ??~~~?? ....cmon man , don't be hipocritical .The fact is that BOTH sides are waging personal attacks .

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You never called Kerry flip-flooper ??~~~?? ....cmon man , don't be hipocritical .The fact is that BOTH sides are waging personal attacks .

I believe that Kerry has flip flopped. I dont consider that a personal attack. I think it is fair game to question someones record. For instance:

George W Bush went to war in Iraq w/o UN backing. His failure to drum up support for the cause has led the US into a dangerous position of unilateralism. This was terrible judgement by President Bush.

or

John Kerry has flip flopped on the issue of Iraq too many times for me to consider him a true leader. Leaders must be resolute and strong. They cannot be influenced by how France and Germany think we should handle things.

I do admit to knockin Theresa on numerous posts. However, she is too insane to count.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I believe that Kerry has flip flopped. I dont consider that a personal attack. I think it is fair game to question someones record. For instance:

George W Bush went to war in Iraq w/o UN backing. His failure to drum up support for the cause has led the US into a dangerous position of unilateralism. This was terrible judgement by President Bush.

or

John Kerry has flip flopped on the issue of Iraq too many times for me to consider him a true leader. Leaders must be resolute and strong. They cannot be influenced by how France and Germany think we should handle things.

.

Flip Flop is a personal attack ...it can almost be interpreted as "TWO FACED "

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
×
×
  • Create New...