Jump to content
Clubplanet Nightlife Community

WSJ: Kerry leading in 13 swing states

Recommended Posts

Electoral College Projections

Based Upon Most Recent Rasmussen Reports Survey Data and Election 2000 Results

Electoral College

2004 Projected

Bush 240

Kerry 169

Toss up 129

Total 538



Rasmussen Reports Home

Economic Confidence Today

Bush vs. Kerry Today

Bush Job Approval

Congress - GOP vs. Dem

Electoral College

State-by-State Polls

Learn More About RR

Contact Us



October 7, 2004--The latest Rasmussen Reports Electoral College projection shows George W. Bush with 240 Electoral Votes and John Kerry with 169. There are now eleven states with 129 Electoral Votes in the Toss-Up category.

Today, we are moving Florida from Toss-Up Status to Leans Bush. In our daily Tracking Poll provided to Premium Members, Bush has been ahead by at least five percentage points for five of the last six days. In our last publicly released Florida survey, the President was up by four percentage points.

Last week, before the Presidential debate, three states moved from Leans Kerry to Toss-Up (Michigan, New Jersey and Maryland). Since that time, the polls in some states have drifted back towards the Democrat. But, none have moved enough at the moment to shift out of Toss-Up status.

The 240 Electoral Votes projected for Bush is his highest total of the year. He has been at 213 since the Republican National Convention.

For Kerry, the total of 169 Electoral Votes is his lowest total of Election 2004. Kerry was constantly in the lead and consistently above 200 projected Electoral Votes until mid-August. Kerry fell behind Bush in the Electoral College count during the weekend leading up to the Republican National Convention.

To review our most recent state-by-state projection, click HERE. Additional state polling data will be released each day at 5:00 p.m. Eastern. The Electoral College projections will be updated if necessary.

* Among the states we currently consider Toss-Up, President Bush has a lead from one to four points in five states with 51 Electoral Votes (Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio, and Wisconsin). He carried Florida, Colorado, Nevada, and Ohio in Election 2000. Iowa and Wisconsin were carried by Al Gore.

* Of all the states won by President Bush four years ago, New Hampshire is the only state that he trails in today.

* In the Toss-Up states, Kerry has a one-to-four point lead in five states with 73 Electoral Votes--Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey and Pennsylvania. All five of those states were carried by Gore four years ago.

* Among states won by Gore, John Kerry trails in Iowa and Wisconsin while New Mexico and Michigan are Toss-ups.

To review our most recent state-by-state projection, click HERE. We have recently released state election polls for Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Georgia, Indiana, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, West Virginia, Washington, Virginia, and Wisconsin. Additional state polls are released each day at 5:00 p.m. Eastern.

Rasmussen Reports Premium Members receive daily Tracking Poll updates for Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Premium Members also receive weekly updates on fifteen states along with other benefits.

Kerry was ahead our Electoral College projections from June until mid-August. His largest lead was 254 to 197 on July 12. Bush pulled ahead for the first time in the weekend leading up to the Republican National Convention.

One of the more significant shifts in the campaign is that states like Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota are now viewed as key battlegrounds. These are states that Gore won in 2000 and that Democrats must now defend.

Early in the summer, these states were leaning fairly strongly in Kerry's direction. At that time, Bush states like North Carolina and Virginia were closer than expected. Democrats at that time had dreams of Southern surprises. But, those possibilities have disappeared.

Rasmussen Reports provides the world's only daily Presidential Tracking Poll, updated each day by noon Eastern.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • Create New...