Did same sex weddings sway voters?

[chris817]

With this new info i doubt it

So lots of pundits, have been attributing Bush's success nationally to his having excited the base over the gay marriage issue. In particular, the strategy of using the ballot initiatives in 11 states, thereby dragging religious conservatives to the polls to vote against marriage and at the same time check the box next to Bush, is regarded as having been particularly effective.

That is, of course, fiction. Bush improved his share of the popular vote by 3.2% from 2000 to 2004 (47.9 in 2000, 51.1 in 2004). Now how did he do in the states which had anti-marriage ballot initiatives?

Arkansas +3.0%

Georgia +3.3%

Kentucky +3.1%

Michigan +1.8%

Mississippi +2.2%

Montana +0.7%

North Dakota +2.2%

Ohio +1.0%

Oklahoma +5.3%

Oregon +0.8%

Utah +4.2%

Only in two states (Utah and Oklahoma) did he gain a significantly higher vote share than he did nationwide. Maybe comparing to the national popular vote is misleading, so let's compare each of those states to a neighboring, politically-similar state which did not have an anti-marriage initiative on the ballot:

Missouri +2.9 (AR +3.0)

Florida +3.4 (GA +3.3)

Tennessee +5.7 (KY +3.1)

Wisconsin +1.5 (MI +1.8)

Alabama +6.0 (MS +2.2)

Idaho +1.2 (MT +0.7)

South Dakota -0.4 (ND +2.2)

Pennsylvania +2.0 (OH +1.0)

Texas +1.8 (OK +5.3)

Washington +1.2 (OR +0.8)

Wyoming +1.2 (UT +4.2)

Again, not much. In only 3 cases (UT-WY, ND-SD, and OK-TX) did Bush improve a lot more in a state with an anti-marriage initiative than he did in the state with which it was paired. And, in the case of North Dakota, the hotly contested Senate race in South Dakota may have skewed things a bit; a better comparison might be Nebraska, where Bush was +3.0% better in 2004 than in 2000, a better improvement than what he got in North Dakota.

That leaves two states, Oklahoma and Utah, which had an anti-marriage initiative on the ballot and in which Bush's vote share improved more both relative to the nation as a whole and relative to the neighboring state selected.

It is certainly possible that the fact that the Bush administration raised the issue to the level to which did led to increased turnout among religious conservatives nationwide, which then resulted in Bush's overall improved vote share over his 2000 performance. However, one would also expect that this vote share improvement would have been particularly high in states in which the marriage issue was particularly relevant. On the contrary, there is no evidence that suggests that the strategy of putting the anti-marriage initiatives on the ballot in several states did anything to improve Bush's performance in those states.

[tasrit]

I don't know what's more sad: that Bush won the elections or that 11 states are against marriage with the same sexe

[dnice35]

In a homo wedding whos family gets to sit on the grooms side?

and when they pronounce you man - woman, who gets to be the bitch? do they flip for it before the wedding?

[chris817]

In a homo wedding whos family gets to sit on the grooms side?

and when they pronounce you man - woman, who gets to be the bitch? do they flip for it before the wedding?

Don't be so ignorant

[dnice35]

Don't be so ignorant

enlighten me then jerk off, it was just a fucking question. no need to get your panties in a ruffle.

[chris817]

enlighten me then jerk off, it was just a fucking question. no need to get your panties in a ruffle.

u'r a tool

[dnice35]

u'r a tool

HUH?