WILL CD's DIE AWAY LIKE 8-TRACKS & CASSETTES??

[digitalphoenix]

Future Music Formats

02.25.2004

The Revolution will be digitized!

Will CDs slip into obsolescence like their eight-track counterparts?

By Noah Vadnai

Ah, digging in the crates. The mark of a true music collector. And if recent headlines are any indication, the crates are soon going to hold a lot more than just out of print vinyl. As digital delivery of music and other media proliferates, media analysts and industry groups say that CDs and DVDs are likely to go the way of the 8-track: obsolescence. But don’t say goodbye to your beloved six inch plastic discs just yet. It seems everyone in the music business has a different take on the future of music formats.

“The CD as a media storage device, which is all it really is, is going to be around for a long while,†predicts Jon Levy, co-owner of LA-based Moonshine Records.

But in his next breathe, Levy quickly acknowledges, “We may have lost an entire generation in terms of physical music products.†He thinks that the current younger generation of middle class music consumers aren’t interested in buying CDs anymore.

Can both these ideas be true? In 2010, will we even have the option of buying a new release on CD or the equivalent? Or will we be forced to think of music as simply bits and bytes that fly through the ether?

Tim Quirk, Executive Editor of Music for Real Networks, which recently acquired Listen.com’s Rhapsody music service, takes the thinking on formats to another level entirely. Quirk believes that music will come to be thought of as, “more of a service than a product.â€

“As exciting as people find the Apple iTunes model, to me, that’s already yesterday,†says Quirk. “All it does is take an old model that everybody’s used to, and map it onto the instant gratification thing. It’s really just Amazon.com where you don’t have to wait for the mailman.â€

Quirk envisions a future where format is a non-issue, because every record is available to everyone, all the time, for a monthly subscription. You won’t actually own anything. “The future we’re building towards with Rhapsody’s music subscription service makes the downloaded track irrelevant. It’s the idea of having music anywhere you go that you can call up on demand.â€

However, it’s clear that many people still want to have something to touch, look at and read when they buy music. Errol Kolosine, President of Astralwerks Records, believes physical formats will always be a part of the music buying experience.

“There will always be people and releases that are uniquely suited to having a physical representation,†states Kolosine. “You look at box sets and stuff like that, people are buying those not just for the music, but also for the packaging and for the artwork and for liner notes. I think there will always be certain types of releases that require that they’re presented that way.â€

DJ, producer, and Ovum Records’ label owner, Josh Wink agrees. “The majority of people out there,†says Wink, “say from ages 10 and up, will still want something tangible and will still want to buy CDs [in the future]. As of right now, people download my stuff—along with a lot of other electronic music artists—but you really don’t get the experience that a physical format provides. No artwork, no credits, no visuals—all of which I think is very important.â€

Digital distribution, the legal kind that’s currently available through music services such Apple’s iTunes music store, as well as a host of nascent services, is clearly an option that will only increase in importance. Some even think that it will lead to the death of the CD.

“By 2010, people will definitely not be buying CDs,†declares producer, composer, and DJ, BT. He sees Apple’s iPod as having touched off a sea change in terms of the way people interact with their music collections. “There’s a whole generation of people right now that has never bought a CD,†says BT. “That will not only continue, but it will cross forward into the older generations. CDs are an antiquated format and a lot of people today are very happy having their entire collection on one device.â€

It all adds up to a murky situation. Clearly, the music and media landscape is in a state of transition, and no one is quite sure—even if they profess to be—what the typical music purchase and record collection will look like in the future.

Kolosine’s guess that “People will have a whole array of options in terms of the way they’re able to purchase music,†is a safe bet. But what about the other ways evolving music formats are changing the business of music?

Lewis Davidson, director of label relations for The Record Pool, a Florida-based company that has developed an MP3 encryption technology for its pay-to-play, digital only record pool service, sees digital formats as a boon for artists and independent labels.

“We created The Record Pool to eliminate the expenses associated with the promotion and marketing of new, untested tracks,†says Davidson. “Using our encryption format, DJs can review, rate, and play products with no expense or pirating risk to the label or artist. The money that would normally have been spent on the production process of the physical, manufactured formats can now go towards creating a better product or a better marketing plan.â€

Instead of pressing expensive vinyl and shipping it out to the DJs and outlets that can make or break a new sound, digital tracks represent a much less risky proposition for getting new tracks out in the club for artists and labels. “For a label,†says Moonshine’s Levy, “Vinyl is a terribly inefficient format, because as a promotional tool, it costs a buck to make and four bucks to ship.â€

“Ideally, digital should create positive opportunities [for artists to create music],†says Kolosine. “But I don’t think it should influence the way people make music. The best music is always created without over-consideration of the marketplace, in the way that a band is most comfortable.â€

Marketing and recording are just two aspects of how digital formats are changing the music creation process.

Josh Wink foresees a day in the near future when he’ll be able to show up at a club in, say, Oslo, Norway with nothing but himself. “The club will be setup with a Final Scratch-like system with a high-speed Internet connection. I’ll access my database of music on my server in Philadelphia and be able to mix from my entire catalog. I’ll be able to access my record box from anywhere in the world.â€

Taking it one step further, Wink imagines a near future in which fans will be able to step into a kiosk in a club and find info about the track the DJ is playing, buy it, and take it home on disc or on a portable device. “Electronic music, underground house, underground techno—it’s kind of difficult for the non-DJ to go and be a part of now. So this would be a neat, interesting way to be a consumer and be able to support the artist and record label, as well as learn about the music that the DJ is mixing.â€

Not everyone is convinced just yet. Bad Boy Bill is still playing 95% vinyl. “I haven’t found the perfect [digital] solution yet,†states Bill. He continues, “When I first got the Pioneer CDJ 1000s, I thought that was it, I was goin’ digital. Then as I messed with ‘em a little more, I realized it wasn’t exactly right.†But even Bad Boy Bill thinks the future is inevitably digital, for music creators and consumers. “As the technology becomes perfected, artists and fans will move away from physical formats. It’s pretty close; I’ve heard the next generations of the technology is a lot better.â€

Kolosine sees the future as a place where formats are mixed freely. “I wouldn’t say that our electronic artists are trending towards digital. Even our dyed-in-the-wool dance artists have always come from a place of mixing organic sounds with digital sounds. If technology is advancing in a way that can benefit your ability to have a direct relationship with your fan base, then I think it’s something you have to embrace.â€

In addition to the physical versus virtual format debate, there is a whole other area of format development that is slowly changing the way we listen to music. Surround sound, DVD audio, super-audio, and other new, ultra-high fidelity, multi-channel technologies are also making inroads into living rooms and car stereos.

“I’m such a proponent of surround sound,†says BT. “I love it so much that I refuse to mix in stereo now. It’s the most exciting sound in the world, it’s like living in the center of the music.â€

Surround sound has been around for a while, but was generally confined to the realm of professional screening rooms and serious audiophiles. Today, an increasing number of releases are being offered in formats that take advantage of the multi-channel audio receivers that are finding their way into the homes and cars of everyday people.

“DVD audio is a real contender for format of the future,†says Jon Levy. “The music is recorded at 96 kHz instead of 44, so you can deliver really high-end audio. The players are coming down in price and we think it will really drive demand for these types of recordings.â€

Undoubtedly, the coming years represent a paradigm shift for music lovers. Depending on whom you ask of course, it could be a totally different ball of wax or just a landscape with many more options for listeners, artists, and labels.Errol Kolosine summed it up nicely. “Nowadays, it’s hard not to be a Luddite, technology is moving so fast. Frankly, we still haven’t figured out what the ultimate format is going to be. But I do think that anyone who is in this business is trying to stay on the leading edge in a proactive rather than a reactive way.â€

[pod]

I think Josh hit the nail on the head.

I hope he doesn't intend on showing up just with "himself" though. Network connections have a nasty habit of failing when you need them the most. At the least, bring a DVD with your library on board

And besides, with the variable nature of today's internet, it would totally suck to be playing a song, and then you get hit with congestion.

I'm sure when IPv6 makes QoS packeting a reality, it will be different, but for now, I don't see DJ sets being played in a club situation via a network.

[funketeer]

Nope...not yet...digital files like mp3, wav, etc...still need cds for storage...they'll probably die, but not yet.

[digitalphoenix]

Originally posted by pod

I think Josh hit the nail on the head.

I hope he doesn't intend on showing up just with "himself" though. Network connections have a nasty habit of failing when you need them the most. At the least, bring a DVD with your library on board

And besides, with the variable nature of today's internet, it would totally suck to be playing a song, and then you get hit with congestion.

I'm sure when IPv6 makes QoS packeting a reality, it will be different, but for now, I don't see DJ sets being played in a club situation via a network.

I agree. That's as visionary as you can get!!

Could you imagine being able to access all your sounds from accross the world???

That's what I call MASSIVE!