Red Sox

[phatbastad]

From sonsofsamhorn

Like many here, I've always had a general sense that, while Alex Rodriguez is always able to put up huge numbers for the Yankees, it seems like most of his actual prodcution happens in the 19-8 blowouts (3-5, 5 R, 3 RBI) and not in the tough close extra inning games (1-9, 1 R, 2 RBI). Ortiz obviously has the exact opposite feeling. The question isn't just "which one is more clutch?" or "who would you want up with the game on the line?" although those are both relevant questions and I can't imagine any Yankee fan would honestly say Rodriguez to either. The question is, "how many games did Rodriguez actually help the Yankees win this year?" and the same for Ortiz. For that, it seems to me, is the real meaning of the word valuable.

So I went through all pulled out all the games in which the player was the difference maker for his team. That is to say, all the games in which the player's team won, but if you took away the runs produced by the player, the game would be a tie or a defeat [any game in which the players team won and R+RBI-HR>= Run differential]. I then looked closer at those games, to see how many times the player produced a key run (a tying or winning run) and how many times the player produced a key run late in the game.

For Rodriguez, the answer is 23. That is, there have been 23 games that the Yankees have won this year by a number less than or equal to the number of runs produced by ARod. Of those, removing ARod's production would result in a loss in 7 games, and a tie in the remaining 16.

Ortiz, meanwhile, has been the difference maker in 27 Red Sox victories. Of those, 12 would have been losses without Ortiz' run production, and 15 would have been ties.

Thus, assuming a .580 winning percentage for both teams in all the 'tie' games (generous given the shape of the Sox bullpen), the standings without the offense of Rodriguez and Ortiz looks something like this:

Yankees 72-77

Red Sox 69-81 3.5 GB

(of course, this is replacing the two superstars not with a league average player, but rather with a player who never drives in or scores any runs at all, so the dramatic difference in records is unsurprising)

So on one level, the answer to the question 'how much is Ortiz' offense worth relative to Rodriguez' is approximately four games; the difference between a half game lead and a three and half game deficit. Another look through the numbers makes it look even greater, however. In the games where Rodriguez' production has been a difference maker for the Yankees, ARod has produced the tying or winning run in 13 of those games, and has produced the tying or winning run late in 6 games. Here, the difference with Ortiz is massive. Ortiz has produced a tying or winning run in 22 of the 27 games in which he has been a difference maker. In more than half of those games, the tying or winning run was produced late in the game (13 times, which doesn't count the fact that on August 16, he hit both the home run to tie the game and the hr to win the game, both late).

I would never use something like this as a measure of calculating an individual player's ability, since it so obviously is dependant on a wide variety of team factors, and I'm sure that over the course of a million iterations the difference would even out. But the MVP award is about performance, not ability. Be it random chance, a mythical clutch hitting ability, or some other factor, it seems obvious to me that Ortiz' offense has won significantly more games for the Sox than Rodriguez has. It seems difficult to imagine that Rodriguez' defense has been a difference maker in four Yankee wins (and his advantage in basestealing is either already counted in his runs scored, or not worth counting). As a result, and with this extremely narrow focus, I would have to say that Ortiz has been the more valuable player.

But Ortiz would have made 39 errors (like Renterria) had he played the field all year.........

[basicmike]

The point is that Ortiz has won more games the Sox than Rodriguez has for the yanks, thus he is more valuable, not what if he had to play defense.

I just thought it was interesting, not 100% correct.

[residentalien]

I have nothing against David Ortiz. I think he's great at what he brings to the game and to his team. However, I'm totally against him or any other dh being the mvp. It just doesn't add up to me. So, maybe someone that thinks dh's should be mvp can give me legit reasons why.

It doesn't really matter to me WHO gets the mvp - but since AROD is a Yankees, I'll use him as an example.

AROD has to play defense as well as offense. He's in the field in the heat, rain, or whatever making plays that keep his team in the game...PLUS, he produces behind the plate. That makes him (imo) more valuable to the team than someone that just gets up and hits homeruns.

While complete players are in the field sweating and making fantastic defensive plays - Ortiz is sitting on his butt RESTING, chilling, and drinking to his hearts content in the dugout.

It stands to reason that a complete player (like AROD) would have more of a challege to perform behind the plate as well. Ortiz gets up to the plate without having exhausted himself in the field prior to his at bat.

It just does not compute for a dh to be given the MVP...it's not fair to players like AROD that are always playing. Like I said, Ortiz is great at what he does. But you've got to wonder if he'd still have the same numbers if he had to play the outfield as well. If he had to be out there running down balls, making sliding catches, or trying to tag out runners. It's conceivable to me that under those circumstances his bat would be a lot more heavier behind the plate.

[phatbastad]

I have nothing against David Ortiz. I think he's great at what he brings to the game and to his team. However, I'm totally against him or any other dh being the mvp. It just doesn't add up to me. So, maybe someone that thinks dh's should be mvp can give me legit reasons why.

It doesn't really matter to me WHO gets the mvp - but since AROD is a Yankees, I'll use him as an example.

AROD has to play defense as well as offense. He's in the field in the heat, rain, or whatever making plays that keep his team in the game...PLUS, he produces behind the plate. That makes him (imo) more valuable to the team than someone that just gets up and hits homeruns.

While complete players are in the field sweating and making fantastic defensive plays - Ortiz is sitting on his butt RESTING, chilling, and drinking to his hearts content in the dugout.

It stands to reason that a complete player (like AROD) would have more of a challege to perform behind the plate as well. Ortiz gets up to the plate without having exhausted himself in the field prior to his at bat.

It just does not compute for a dh to be given the MVP...it's not fair to players like AROD that are always playing. Like I said, Ortiz is great at what he does. But you've got to wonder if he'd still have the same numbers if he had to play the outfield as well. If he had to be out there running down balls, making sliding catches, or trying to tag out runners. It's conceivable to me that under those circumstances his bat would be a lot more heavier behind the plate.

Then say this in your first post instead of the idiotic Yankeeesque statement that you made earlier.....IMO any advantage in the MVP voting ARod has by playing the field is nullified due to the fact that Ortizzle is more clutch. It's a toss up. The last series of the year will prob decide the AL Champ and also may decide the AL MVP.

[residentalien]

Then say this in your first post instead of the idiotic Yankeeesque statement that you made earlier.....IMO any advantage in the MVP voting ARod has by playing the field is nullified due to the fact that Ortizzle is more clutch. It's a toss up. The last series of the year will prob decide the AL Champ and also may decide the AL MVP.

if i said of that in my first post it wouldnt be so much fun would it??..never fun to be agreable is it? and yes i agree the last weekend will decided everything.....

[vyto]

I agree that I hate Jose and the Yankees...

Your Welcome...

[residentalien]

I agree that I hate Jose and the Yankees...

Your Welcome...

go back to chi town u king of clowns!! root for the fcking cubs and the bears instead as posing as a soxs/patriots fan

[vyto]

I root for the White Sox tooo...

I have a better chance of being happy when I root for

Baseball

----------

White Sox

Cubs

Red Sox

Football

--------

Patriots

Bears

I still hate you though..

[residentalien]

I root for the White Sox tooo...

I have a better chance of being happy when I root for

Baseball

----------

White Sox

Cubs

Red Sox

Football

--------

Patriots

Bears

I still hate you though..

what happens when they play each other? and how can u hate mexicans? they bring joy to your cracker world

[vyto]

When they play each other..

I just root for Ditka...

-- Da Superfans...

Bob: If I may shift gears for a moment gentleman, coach Ditka vs. The Hurricane, who would win?

Todd, Pat, Carl: Ditka, Ditka!!

Bob: Hold on, Hold on, Hold on. The name of the Hurricane is Hurricane Ditka.

[residentalien]

go back to dirka dirkaland

[mixwell]

FUCK! That was a horrible game. 10 more to go. Get on your rally caps

[basicmike]

Fuck you Mike Timlin