Ivan takes a turn for the worse for South Florida

[Guest sobe2004]

Ivan takes a turn for the worse for South Florida

By KEN KAYE

sun-sentinel.com

Posted September 8 2004, 4:18 PM EDT

Hurricane Ivan's forecast track has taken a right turn - a turn for the worse for South Florida.

Now a dangerous Category 4 system, packing 140 mph winds, Ivan is projected to follow a path similar to Hurricane Charley, coming up from the Caribbean and paralleling the southwest Gulf Coast.

That could put it precariously close to this region.

On that course, Ivan, with tropical force winds extending 160 miles from its core, would likely only deliver a glancing blow to South Florida -- with winds and rain.

But with a slight wobble closer, it could produce as much and possibly more wet and gusty misery here as Hurricane Frances, which is still a fresh and harsh memory. South Florida would be on the right side of the storm, where the winds are strongest and the rain heaviest, said Jim Lushine, meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Miami.

"Another 12 inches of rain wouldn't be out of the question in this part of the state," he said. "It's certainly a threat."

The bottom line: South Florida needs to be alert once again and brace for potential hurricane or tropical storm conditions as early as Saturday, but more likely Sunday or even as late as Monday.

"Everybody wants to know where it's going to hit," Jennifer Pralgo, meteorologist with the National Hurricane Center in Miami-Dade County, said Wednesday. "Unfortunately, let's wait and see. Make sure you're prepared."

At 2 p.m. EDT, Hurricane Ivan was centered about 105 miles east of Bonaire with the eye expected to pass north of the Dutch islands Wednesday afternoon. Hurricane-force winds extended up to 70 miles and tropical storm-force winds another 160 miles. At 8 a.m. EDT, Ivan was centered near latitude 13.1 north, longitude 67.0 west, or about 740 miles southeast of Jamaica. It was moving west northwest at 16 mph.

The tempest made a direct hit on Grenada on Tuesday, killing three people and leaving homes and businesses in rubble. It also caused damage on Barbados, St. Vincent and St. Lucia.

Ivan was projected to build to 145 mph and churn over Jamaica on Friday and over west Cuba, and possibly Havana, on Sunday.

If it collides with those land areas, it would likely be slowed down, but it was still forecast to emerge in the Florida Straits with 132 mph winds, Category 4 status and capable of massive destruction.

Because the storm still is about four days away, the forecast track could easily take Ivan closer to or right over South Florida. The future track also could sway farther to the west, reducing the region's threat.

If it generally follows the current track, it would be west of Fort Myers on Monday morning. From there it could threaten any of the Gulf Coast states.

If it should hit the southern tip of the state and aim toward the Gold Coast, it is unlikely that it would remain an intense hurricane, with winds greater than 110. A hurricane that originated near the Cape Verde Islands, as Ivan was, has never come from the south and hit South Florida as a major storm, Lushine said.

But he added, "Unprecedented things happen all the time with the weather."

For now, the west coast of the state is most threatened, including flood-prone Tampa and Punta Gorda, which was slammed by Category 4 Hurricane Charley on Aug. 13.

As with Frances, forecasters once again are faced with computer models that vastly disagree on where Ivan will go. Most of the models take it into the Gulf of Mexico, but close to the Gulf Coast. Some would take it east of the state, and parallel the coastline heading north.

Hurricane forecasters average out the models and take other factors into account, such as information from hurricane hunter aircraft, then craft their best guess on where a storm will go.

"The track is changing all the time," Pralgo said. "We're trying to keep it steady. If we go with the models, we'll be going back and forth like a windshield wiper."

The models' disagreement centers on whether a ridge of high pressure, north of Ivan's track, will weaken and allow the system to move to the north. That is the same high-pressure area that pushed Frances onto the Treasure Coast on Sunday.

"It's been a busy year," Pralgo, of the hurricane center, said. "Most of the hurricane specialists haven't taken their shutters down."

Ken Kaye can be reached at kkaye@sun-sentinel.com.

[Guest mikepayne]

[ryan2772]

fuck

[Guest pod]

Again, based on the current storm track, I do not see this being any worse than Frances was for the Miami area.

Time will tell though. It would be a rare moment indeed for this storm system to make such a drastic change in course.

As usual, I advise keeping an eye on the NHC (www.nhc.noaa.gov) website for the latest info. Especially check out the satellite loops and you can make a reasonable prediction on where it will go.

I'm not gonna worry about it for now.

[Bling]

same here dan. either way remember if it does hit west coast we shouldnt feel much we didnt even feel charley.

this storm is nowhere near the size of frances. though it is a lot stronger.... neverhthless, these storms never stay that strong for long by the time it gets here it will be weaker for sure.

[CrzyC1414779017]

Again, based on the current storm track, I do not see this being any worse than Frances was for the Miami area.

Time will tell though. It would be a rare moment indeed for this storm system to make such a drastic change in course.

As usual, I advise keeping an eye on the NHC (www.nhc.noaa.gov) website for the latest info. Especially check out the satellite loops and you can make a reasonable prediction on where it will go.

I'm not gonna worry about it for now.

Start cleaning your place now so I can come live with you when I need to.

[Guest pod]

I don't know if I can requisition a dumptruck that fast.

[CrzyC1414779017]

I don't know if I can requisition a dumptruck that fast.

LOL!

[Guest DJTeKWReK]

Well, I predicted that Frances wasn't gonna directly hit us (Miami) when i started watching it form africa. I predicted that this storm would. So, i think we're gonna see the high pressure trough up north push it a bit east and see it slam the south western side of florida (which is mostly everglades and damaged area from Charley). We will get some nastier storm than frances delt us... thats mny prediction... All right, now down to business, WHO WANTS TO JUMP IN THE HURRICANE POOL? It's $5 to get in, and u pick where u think Ivan will make landfall.....

[Guest Diabolique]

Time to go get those items you waited to get that was out when you went to go get them. Knowhuddimean?

I'm worrying about it whether I want to or not!!

[Bling]

Time to go get those items you waited to get that was out when you went to go get them. Knowhuddimean?

I'm worrying about it whether I want to or not!!

i hear ya.......

[Guest mikepayne]

Ouch... forecast is looking worse and worse as time goes by.

[MIRZA1414779019]

Ouch... forecast is looking worse and worse as time goes by.

It's not looking to good at all.

[Guest demo909]

Don't believe the hype!!! Miss Norcross & Miss Kamal all have you shaking in your shoes for nothing right now :

[Guest mikepayne]

Who the hell is paying attention to Norcross or Kamal? Not me, I'm looking at the NOAA report, and the map don't look too pretty for us.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0904W5%2BGIF/070303W5.gif

[Guest Diabolique]

we get our update in 15 minutes.... :-\

This TOTALY fubars plans I made >

[all4tribal1414779019]

Ivan takes a turn for the worse for South Florida

By KEN KAYE

sun-sentinel.com

Posted September 8 2004, 4:18 PM EDT

Hurricane Ivan's forecast track has taken a right turn - a turn for the worse for South Florida.

Now a dangerous Category 4 system, packing 140 mph winds, Ivan is projected to follow a path similar to Hurricane Charley, coming up from the Caribbean and paralleling the southwest Gulf Coast.

That could put it precariously close to this region.

On that course, Ivan, with tropical force winds extending 160 miles from its core, would likely only deliver a glancing blow to South Florida -- with winds and rain.

But with a slight wobble closer, it could produce as much and possibly more wet and gusty misery here as Hurricane Frances, which is still a fresh and harsh memory. South Florida would be on the right side of the storm, where the winds are strongest and the rain heaviest, said Jim Lushine, meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Miami.

"Another 12 inches of rain wouldn't be out of the question in this part of the state," he said. "It's certainly a threat."

The bottom line: South Florida needs to be alert once again and brace for potential hurricane or tropical storm conditions as early as Saturday, but more likely Sunday or even as late as Monday.

"Everybody wants to know where it's going to hit," Jennifer Pralgo, meteorologist with the National Hurricane Center in Miami-Dade County, said Wednesday. "Unfortunately, let's wait and see. Make sure you're prepared."

At 2 p.m. EDT, Hurricane Ivan was centered about 105 miles east of Bonaire with the eye expected to pass north of the Dutch islands Wednesday afternoon. Hurricane-force winds extended up to 70 miles and tropical storm-force winds another 160 miles. At 8 a.m. EDT, Ivan was centered near latitude 13.1 north, longitude 67.0 west, or about 740 miles southeast of Jamaica. It was moving west northwest at 16 mph.

The tempest made a direct hit on Grenada on Tuesday, killing three people and leaving homes and businesses in rubble. It also caused damage on Barbados, St. Vincent and St. Lucia.

Ivan was projected to build to 145 mph and churn over Jamaica on Friday and over west Cuba, and possibly Havana, on Sunday.

If it collides with those land areas, it would likely be slowed down, but it was still forecast to emerge in the Florida Straits with 132 mph winds, Category 4 status and capable of massive destruction.

Because the storm still is about four days away, the forecast track could easily take Ivan closer to or right over South Florida. The future track also could sway farther to the west, reducing the region's threat.

If it generally follows the current track, it would be west of Fort Myers on Monday morning. From there it could threaten any of the Gulf Coast states.

If it should hit the southern tip of the state and aim toward the Gold Coast, it is unlikely that it would remain an intense hurricane, with winds greater than 110. A hurricane that originated near the Cape Verde Islands, as Ivan was, has never come from the south and hit South Florida as a major storm, Lushine said.

But he added, "Unprecedented things happen all the time with the weather."

For now, the west coast of the state is most threatened, including flood-prone Tampa and Punta Gorda, which was slammed by Category 4 Hurricane Charley on Aug. 13.

As with Frances, forecasters once again are faced with computer models that vastly disagree on where Ivan will go. Most of the models take it into the Gulf of Mexico, but close to the Gulf Coast. Some would take it east of the state, and parallel the coastline heading north.

Hurricane forecasters average out the models and take other factors into account, such as information from hurricane hunter aircraft, then craft their best guess on where a storm will go.

"The track is changing all the time," Pralgo said. "We're trying to keep it steady. If we go with the models, we'll be going back and forth like a windshield wiper."

The models' disagreement centers on whether a ridge of high pressure, north of Ivan's track, will weaken and allow the system to move to the north. That is the same high-pressure area that pushed Frances onto the Treasure Coast on Sunday.

"It's been a busy year," Pralgo, of the hurricane center, said. "Most of the hurricane specialists haven't taken their shutters down."

Ken Kaye can be reached at kkaye@sun-sentinel.com.

that means no envy, oh no!