'Very active' hurricane season predicted

[Bling]

DENVER, Colorado (AP) -- The 2007 Atlantic hurricane season should be "very active," with nine hurricanes and a good chance that at least one major hurricane will hit the U.S. coast, a top researcher said Tuesday.

Forecaster William Gray said he expects a total of 17 named storms this year, five of them major hurricanes with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater.

The probability of a major hurricane making landfall on the U.S. coast this year: 74 percent, compared with the average of 52 percent over the past century, he said.

Last year, Gray's forecast and government forecasts were higher than what the Atlantic hurricane season produced.

There were 10 named Atlantic storms in 2006 and five hurricanes, two of them major, in what was considered a "near normal" season.

None of those hurricanes hit the U.S. Atlantic coast -- only the 11th time that has occurred since 1945. The National Hurricane Center in Miami originally reported nine storms, but upgraded one storm after a postseason review.

Gray's research team at Colorado State University said an unexpected late El Niño contributed to the calmer season last year. El Niño -- a warming in the Pacific Ocean -- has far-reaching effects that include changing wind patterns in the eastern Atlantic, which can disrupt the formation of hurricanes there.

A weak to moderate El Niño occurred in December and January but dissipated rapidly, said Phil Klotzbach, a member of Gray's team.

"Conditions this year are likely to be more conducive to hurricanes," Klotzbach said Tuesday. In the absence of El Niño, "winds aren't tearing the storm systems apart."

The team's forecasts are based on global oceanic and atmospheric conditions.

Klotzbach advised coastal residents along the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico to have hurricane plans and preparedness kits in place, but he added, "You can't let the possibility of a hurricane coming ruin your summer."

The Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, averages 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 intense hurricanes per year.

The devastating 2005 season set a record with 28 named storms, 15 of them hurricanes. Four of those hurricanes hit the U.S. coast, the worst among them Katrina, which devastated New Orleans and leveled parts of the Gulf Coast region.

Gray has spent more than 40 years in tropical weather research. He heads the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State.

Federal government forecasters plan to release their prediction in late May.

http://www.cnn.com/2007/WEATHER/04/03/hurricane.forecast.ap/index.html

[Guest meta]

Umm Yeah wait and see if this really happens. Thats what they said about last hurricane season. 15646735164675 hurricans are predicted and what happen none landed.

Never trust a forecaster. They will lie to you face on constant bases.

I thought you said it wasn't going to rain

"Rain what rain"

[V. Barbarino]

It seems apparent, the worst the forecast, the more money these ass clowns get and more air time they get.. Last year they blew it.. No point in listening to them anymore..

[Guest meta]

Well i wont be an idiot. I'll prepare no doubt. I dont want to be one of those last minute shoppers for hurricanes thats kicking and scream for a can of green beans.

But let me know when its actually coming and save everyone the agony.

[Guest JMT]

ill start paying attention when we are in the cone of death with 2 days left.

[Guest coach]

It seems apparent, the worst the forecast, the more money these ass clowns get and more air time they get.. Last year they blew it.. No point in listening to them anymore..

+1 billion

[Guest pod]

Heh, even Max Mayfield, before he left the NHC, said that they really didn't know what they were talking about half the time.

[Guest meta]

Heh, even Max Mayfield, before he left the NHC, said that they really didn't know what they were talking about half the time.

I'll get a better forecast looking out my window.

[Guest bronzie]

It'll be interesting to see what does happen though. I moved down here last February preparing for the worst since they said it was gonna be bad and Mother Nature decided to take easy. I prefer not to have any hurricanes though....

[Bling]

just remember if a storm strikes.....be ready with red markers to put these signs up around your house...

esp if u live in the shadier areas of dade county

[Guest bronzie]

Fuck the sign, you come trying to steal my shit, they's gonna have to remove some buck shot from yo ass.

[Guest yume]

I'm excited to be in a big storm.

[Oni1414777741]

I had enough hurricanes, no thanks. Thankfully winter is almost over (though the calendar says its spring) so i'll be basking in spring in no time.

Though it DID snow there this morning. *lol* Wacky as hell.

[Guest JMT]

2007 Yearly Tropical Cyclone Activity to Date

Unless a dramatic and perhaps historical flurry of activity occurs in the next 9 weeks, 2007 will rank as a historically inactive TC year for the Northern Hemisphere as a whole. During the past 30 years, only 1977, 1981, and 1983 have had less activity to date (January-TODAY, Accumulated Cyclone Energy). However, the year is not over...

2007 lowest September activity on record since 1977

2006 and 2007 lowest October activity on record since 1976 and 1977

For the period of June 1 - TODAY, only 1977 has experienced LESS tropical cyclone activity than 2007.

The North Atlantic hurricane season is currently nearly 30% below normal in terms of a well-known activity metric called ACE. While the number of named storms is above normal, their integrated intensity has not matched the hyper-active expectations of many seasonal forecasters (NOAA 140-200% of median). The Eastern Pacific off the western coast of Mexico is also experiencing record inactivity. NOAA Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook Update Note: on average to date (1970-2006), the Eastern Pacific season is 97% completed, Western Pacific 82%, North Atlantic 93% and overall Northern Hemisphere 87%.

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/

[Guest Mattivi]

from this article one can deduct the following reasoning; global warming alarmism is running a tad bit amock, but a gradual shift from fossil fuels to more earth friendly energys is good for everyone across the board.

[Guest jkfunkee]

2007 Yearly Tropical Cyclone Activity to Date

Unless a dramatic and perhaps historical flurry of activity occurs in the next 9 weeks, 2007 will rank as a historically inactive TC year for the Northern Hemisphere as a whole. During the past 30 years, only 1977, 1981, and 1983 have had less activity to date (January-TODAY, Accumulated Cyclone Energy). However, the year is not over...

2007 lowest September activity on record since 1977

2006 and 2007 lowest October activity on record since 1976 and 1977

For the period of June 1 - TODAY, only 1977 has experienced LESS tropical cyclone activity than 2007.

The North Atlantic hurricane season is currently nearly 30% below normal in terms of a well-known activity metric called ACE. While the number of named storms is above normal, their integrated intensity has not matched the hyper-active expectations of many seasonal forecasters (NOAA 140-200% of median). The Eastern Pacific off the western coast of Mexico is also experiencing record inactivity. NOAA Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook Update Note: on average to date (1970-2006), the Eastern Pacific season is 97% completed, Western Pacific 82%, North Atlantic 93% and overall Northern Hemisphere 87%.

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/

FLORIDA STATE?

late,

j.

[Guest JMT]

from this article one can deduct the following reasoning; global warming alarmism is running a tad bit amock, but a gradual shift from fossil fuels to more earth friendly energys is good for everyone across the board.

my sentiments, as well.

[Guest slamminshaun]

my sentiments, as well.

Hey, global warming junkies.....what happened to the "very active" season you guys spelled out for us? That's 2 years in a row and practically no hurricanes! I watched "Inconvenient Truth" and Al Gore says that hurricane activity was going to go through the roof in the next few years (when he wrote it a few years ago)....what's going on out there? Let me guess....global warming actually prevented the hurricanes from forming, right?

[Guest cire]

It was the same last year. As with 99% of forecasters and weathermen/women, they work in a field that can't be predicted, hell the meteorologists here in Atlanta can't get the shit right day to day, much less predicting a whole year of activity.