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GULP! Higher Coffee Prices Filtering Down

36 minutes ago Business - Reuters

By Jeff Coelho

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. consumers may soon have to swallow more expensive coffee as soaring futures and rising costs from milk to fuel induce roasters to charge more for the steamy brew, industry participants said.

Arabica coffee futures listed on the New York Board of Trade (NYBOT) are up about 26 percent since the middle of August when prices were at their lowest levels since late 2003.

Starbucks Corp. (Nasdaq:SBUX - news), the world's biggest coffee-supply chain, has already announced that it plans to increase prices before the end of the year.

"Based on increased costs throughout the business, Starbucks plans to raise prices by an average of 11 cents in company-operated stores in North America, effective Oct. 6," a company spokesman told Reuters by email.

The Seattle-based coffee retailer has not done a system-wide price increase on beverages since August 2000.

Analysts said that while Starbucks represents high-grade coffee, the more mainstream roasters may follow suit even though there is no shortage of lower-quality beans, particularly from countries like Vietnam.

"Starbucks' recent discussion about raising prices opens up the Pandora's box for general price increases in the industry," said one analyst, who asked not to be named.

Generally, roasters make their decision to raise or lower prices based on eight-week moving averages for green coffee prices, said Judy Ganes of J. Ganes Consulting which provides research for commodity markets.

"I would expect it would happen imminently, but nothing has been announced yet," she said.

"Historically, we have changed our pricing to retailers when there has been a sustained move in the New York "C" (coffee contract)," said Tonia Hyatt, a spokeswoman for Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG - news) which carries the Folgers coffee brand.

Hyatt declined to say whether a price hike was in the cards. Other mainstream roasters, such as Kraft Foods Inc. (NYSE:KFT - news) with its Maxwell House brand and Sara Lee Corp. (NYSE:SLE - news) with its Chock full o'Nuts brand, were not immediately available for comment.

The mainstream roasters may be able to hold off on price increases because new roasting techniques enables them to use cheaper robustas in their soluble blends.

On Monday, NYBOT's most-active December contract for arabica coffee futures settled at 86 cents a pound to mark the loftiest level since mid-June.

Coffee is the most actively traded physical commodity after crude oil, which also skyrocketed this year. The United States is the world's biggest consumer of the brew.

Sara Lee and Procter & Gamble last raised prices on their coffee brands in the spring, when benchmark arabica futures were hovering at about 73 cents a pound.

In early May, Folgers lifted its food service and office coffee prices by 4 to 6 percent and cut its promotional spending to retailers.

The Sara Lee Coffee and Tea Food Service division of Sara Lee raised its food service price coffee prices by 25 cents per lb on March 28.

The increases were attributed to expectations of rising consumption and higher prices for green coffee beans as well as crude oil.

Apart from rising fuel costs, freight costs for coffee have surged because of export congestion in Brazil, the world's biggest coffee grower and exporter. The ports are jammed as Brazil exports almost everything from sugar to soybeans.

"All of our freight rates are going up which comes right through the price of coffee," said Jerry Rogers, a coffee buyer in Gravois Mills, Missouri

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