i'm not saying that markets arent efficient. coming from an economics background, i'm a proponent of free markets. however, you cant look at this situation in pure mathematical terms. markets are driven by humans, and as i'm sure we'll all agree, man is flawed (just look at pete:D ). anyway i do believe that something like a futures terror market would possibly incent (i know it's not a word) people to commit actions of terror or whatnot. to take the earlier example, most games have at one point or another been fixed, or at least someone has tried to fix the game to ensure he/she would come out on top. another problem i see is that it would seem to me that if anyone who put a large sum of money towards, lets say, a terrorist attack on 6/29/2005, it would seem reasonable that we (the general public or the govt at the least) would want to know why that person believed in that event, ie what kind of insider information that person had. it leads to all kinds of implications as to the motivations of the person/instituation behind the buy. eek, i should be working.